At 4:45 a.m., a Bitcoin wick pierced $67,000, liquidating $330 million in leveraged positions in two hours. Liquidations totaled $1.64 billion on Friday, with longs accounting for more than 90%. Since its October 6 peak of $126,000, Bitcoin has fallen 46.6%—nearly halving in six weeks. No single coin blew up; the entire market is bleeding at once.
Bitcoin hit an intraday low of $67,032, its lowest since August, and is now hovering around $67,000, down 3.08% in 24 hours. Ethereum is at $1,904, down 2.66%. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for six straight days, totaling about $1.44 billion, and $1.88 billion since November (Farside). ETFs are no longer stepping in to buy the dip—that’s the biggest difference between this sell-off and previous ones. Before, institutions bought the dip; now, they’re heading for the exits. The Fear & Greed Index is at 17, indicating extreme fear; the U.S. Dollar Index is back above 103, its highest since April.
What will determine the next move are three knives that have yet to fall.
The first: Anthropic’s IPO. Pricing is set for November 18, with trading opening on the Nasdaq on the 19th. The offering price is $70–78, with around $64.4 billion to be raised, subscriptions at roughly 6 times the offering, and a valuation of $1.33 trillion. The CEO of Xapo Bank believes institutions are selling coins for cash to secure allocations. There’s a strange historical parallel: Bitcoin fell 19% in the 50 days before SpaceX went public; this time it’s down 18%—almost exactly the same. After SpaceX’s listing, Bitcoin briefly rebounded to $68,000. Matt Cole of Strive believes that, if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could return to around $90,000 by the end of February next year.
The second: MSCI removing Strategy. The decision was made on November 11: funds tracking MSCI must sell around 13 million shares of Strategy by November 30. The passive selling is scheduled, and there’s no avoiding it.
The third: the Fed. Minutes from the October meeting will be released on November 18, and the next rate decision is on December 8–9. October PPI was up 6.5% year over year, the highest since November 2022. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December at around 88%, with another 12% betting on 50 basis points. Expectations have flipped from “When will they cut rates?” to “Will they raise them?”—faster than prices have fallen.
How might the three scenarios play out?
Bullish: IPO-related cash withdrawals end and the minutes are dovish. Selling pressure eases after November 19, Bitcoin stabilizes around $67,000, and the market begins to recover along the lines of the SpaceX pattern, with $75,000–80,000 as the first target. This hinges on ETF outflows stopping first—which we haven’t seen yet.
Neutral—and currently the more likely scenario: the knives fall one by one, and the market drifts lower as it absorbs the news. Bitcoin trades in a $65,000–70,000 range, with slowing ETF outflows as the first sign of stabilization.
Bearish: the Fed really does raise rates by 25 or even 50 basis points in December, on top of passive selling related to MSCI. Bitcoin falls below $65,000, with $60,000 as the next level to watch. Among the options expiring on November 27 on Deribit, 8 of the 10 most active contracts are puts with strike prices of $69,000–74,000. Big money is already buying insurance against a drop.
The impact on \u003cc-49/\u003e and \u003cc-51/\u003e is different, too. BNB is around $614, down 3.99% over 24 hours, moving in sync with the broader market. Exchange tokens have high beta: when the broader market is shaky, they tend to fall first. But buybacks and burns are unchanged, and once the broader market stabilizes, BNB is often among the first to rebound. Watch the $600 level first; if it fails, look to $580. ZEC is down 6.78% today, at around $897. It was previously a strong performer in the privacy sector; this time, it’s a strong coin catching up on the downside, falling more than the broader market as holders take profits. The narrative hasn’t broken, but don’t rush in before the catch-up decline is over. The key level is $850.
What should you watch? Four dates: November 18, when the Fed minutes are released; November 19, when Anthropic starts trading; November 30, the deadline for MSCI-related selling; and December 9, the rate decision. Two data points: whether ETF flows turn positive, and whether liquidations continue to rise. Volatility is extreme, so participate cautiously—buying the dip now is like reaching out to catch a falling knife. Position sizing matters more than calling the direction.