Evening recap: 67,000 and 1,900 are back in play, but 68,000 is still looming overhead—my short’s unrealized profit has shrunk a little. Here’s the latest.
At 19:00, $BTC was around $67,245, down 3.0% over 24 hours; $ETH was around $1,907, down 2.3% over 24 hours (live prices from CoinGecko). BTC rebounded from 66,936 this afternoon, reclaiming 67,000, and ETH reclaimed 1,900. But neither managed to reclaim the 200-week moving average around 68,000. Both the 12:00 and 16:00 four-hour candles closed below it. If the 20:00 candle also closes below 68,000, that will be a third consecutive confirmation—and with thin weekend volume, it’ll most likely close below as well.
New data: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw another net outflow of around $185 million on Friday (SoSoValue), marking a seventh consecutive trading day of outflows and bringing the year-to-date total to a net outflow of around $1.56 billion. IBIT alone saw $144 million flow out, and FBTC $41.9 million. The Fear & Greed Index is at 12: Extreme Fear. Around $660 million in positions were liquidated across the market over 24 hours, affecting 125,000 traders; BTC accounted for $279 million and ETH for $144 million (CoinGlass). Money is still flowing out, sentiment is still at rock bottom, and a low-volume rebound is no reason to turn bullish.
Short position update #6: I opened this short today at 07:04 in the 68,000–69,000 range, with a midpoint entry of 68,500. At the current price of 67,245, the price is down 1.83%, putting the unrealized profit at around +183% based on 100x margin. It was +228% at 17:00, so this rebound has eaten up 45 percentage points. Honestly, this trade is still profitable—it’s just less profitable now. The stop-loss is at 70,500, and I’ll admit I’m wrong if a four-hour candle closes above 70,214. Neither level has been touched, so I’m holding. Target one at 65,000 (take half off when reached) and target two at 62,300–62,800 remain unchanged.
No change to the plan: continue holding the short; don’t chase or add to it below 68,000. If price rebounds to around 68,000–68,100, fails to close above that level on the four-hour chart, and gets rejected, I’ll consider adding a small short position, with the stop still above 70,500. I’ll post another update after the 20:00 candle closes. Conditions for a reversal: exit and admit I’m wrong if a four-hour candle closes above 70,214; I’ll only consider turning bullish if the daily candle closes back above the 200-day moving average at 73,125. I’m using only a very small portion of my total capital for 100x margin.
No data over the weekend; next week will be the real test: Fed Chair speaks Monday, retail sales on Tuesday, Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, and FOMC meeting minutes on Thursday. Are you holding your positions overnight this weekend, or taking half off the table? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: live CoinGecko data as of November 14, 19:00 Beijing time; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
At 19:00, $BTC was around $67,245, down 3.0% over 24 hours; $ETH was around $1,907, down 2.3% over 24 hours (live prices from CoinGecko). BTC rebounded from 66,936 this afternoon, reclaiming 67,000, and ETH reclaimed 1,900. But neither managed to reclaim the 200-week moving average around 68,000. Both the 12:00 and 16:00 four-hour candles closed below it. If the 20:00 candle also closes below 68,000, that will be a third consecutive confirmation—and with thin weekend volume, it’ll most likely close below as well.
New data: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw another net outflow of around $185 million on Friday (SoSoValue), marking a seventh consecutive trading day of outflows and bringing the year-to-date total to a net outflow of around $1.56 billion. IBIT alone saw $144 million flow out, and FBTC $41.9 million. The Fear & Greed Index is at 12: Extreme Fear. Around $660 million in positions were liquidated across the market over 24 hours, affecting 125,000 traders; BTC accounted for $279 million and ETH for $144 million (CoinGlass). Money is still flowing out, sentiment is still at rock bottom, and a low-volume rebound is no reason to turn bullish.
Short position update #6: I opened this short today at 07:04 in the 68,000–69,000 range, with a midpoint entry of 68,500. At the current price of 67,245, the price is down 1.83%, putting the unrealized profit at around +183% based on 100x margin. It was +228% at 17:00, so this rebound has eaten up 45 percentage points. Honestly, this trade is still profitable—it’s just less profitable now. The stop-loss is at 70,500, and I’ll admit I’m wrong if a four-hour candle closes above 70,214. Neither level has been touched, so I’m holding. Target one at 65,000 (take half off when reached) and target two at 62,300–62,800 remain unchanged.
No change to the plan: continue holding the short; don’t chase or add to it below 68,000. If price rebounds to around 68,000–68,100, fails to close above that level on the four-hour chart, and gets rejected, I’ll consider adding a small short position, with the stop still above 70,500. I’ll post another update after the 20:00 candle closes. Conditions for a reversal: exit and admit I’m wrong if a four-hour candle closes above 70,214; I’ll only consider turning bullish if the daily candle closes back above the 200-day moving average at 73,125. I’m using only a very small portion of my total capital for 100x margin.
No data over the weekend; next week will be the real test: Fed Chair speaks Monday, retail sales on Tuesday, Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, and FOMC meeting minutes on Thursday. Are you holding your positions overnight this weekend, or taking half off the table? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: live CoinGecko data as of November 14, 19:00 Beijing time; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
