95% of the value of $ADA ever traded on Binance (in USD, since 2018) is ABOVE the current price of 0.163. In other words: nearly everyone who bought from late 2020 onward is currently at a loss. 👇
📍 Context
• ADA at 0.163 — November 2020 price levels, down 88% from its peak of 1.33 (12/2024)
• 6 consecutive weeks closing lower than the previous week (0.260 → 0.164)
• ADA/BTC hit 232 sats — its lowest level ever recorded on Binance
📊 Who’s holding ADA, and what’s their cost basis? (image ①)
• Bought over the past 12 months: 0.294 (down ~44%)
• Bought since the start of 2026: 0.244 (down ~33%)
• Bought from the June bottom of 0.1382: 0.2105 (down ~22%)
• Only those who bought in the 2020 base zone (0.137) are still in profit
→ Every rebound will run into sellers looking to break even at 0.21 / 0.24 / 0.29. A recovery won’t be easy.
📉 Lessons from the previous 2 cycles (image ②)
• 2018: −93% from the peak
• 2021–2022: −93% from the peak
• This cycle: currently down −90% (bottom 0.1382)
If it repeats a −93% drop, the bottom zone would be ≈ 0.093. I don’t think that’s certain to happen, but the plan needs to be able to withstand that scenario.
🎯 How I’ve divided the accumulation zones (image ③)
• Z1 0.138–0.150: retest of the cycle bottom
• Z2 0.115–0.130: late-2020 breakout zone
• Z3 0.085–0.100: −93% scenario, as in the previous 2 cycles; also the zone with the highest trading volume in 2020
• I’ll only buy more at higher prices once a weekly candle closes above 0.2105 (the cost basis of the group that bought near the bottom)
Principle: don’t chase the price; keep most of the capital for the lowest zone.
⚠️ Risks (image ④)
• FOMC 08–09/12: the market is pricing in ~85% odds of a Fed RATE HIKE
• No ADA spot ETF in sight (Grayscale withdrew its filing on 10/08), DeFi TVL $48.9M — a 12-month low
• Derivatives: long/short account ratio is 2.05; longs still outnumber shorts → if 0.153 gives way, it could trigger cascading liquidations
• ADA is ~1.4× as volatile as BTC
🛑 I’ll stop accumulating if: a monthly candle closes below 0.085 · ADA/BTC closes the month below 200 sats · staking ratio falls below 50% (currently ~58%) · a serious network incident occurs
✅ Positives worth noting: the Van Rossem hard fork successfully ran on-chain governance (07/2026); the second node, Amaru, produced a mainnet block on 05/11; ~58% of ADA is being staked. Development is still progressing steadily — the price just hasn’t reflected it yet.
These are my personal observations of the data, not investment advice. DYOR.
#ADA #Cardano #DCA #Midnight #BTC