Bitcoin has fallen below its 200-week moving average. The $68,000 bull-bear dividing line didn’t hold.
On November 13, BTC plunged to $67,500 intraday, breaking below the 200-week moving average (around $67,993). It was the first time in nearly three months that the price had tested this level—and it broke straight through.
The data is brutal. Over the past 24 hours, $1.5 billion in positions were liquidated across the market, including $900 million in BTC long positions—more than 90% of the total. ETFs have seen $1.9 billion in net outflows so far in November, with institutional investors not stepping in to buy the dip. The daily RSI has fallen to the low 20s, an historically extreme oversold level from a technical perspective.
Why does the 200-week moving average matter? It represents the average weekly price over the past four years, and several bear-market bottoms have formed around this level. But after BTC broke below it in 2022, the price ultimately bottomed 34% below the average. So “the 200-week moving average is the bottom” and “there could be another one-third drop after a break below it” both refer to the same level. The difference is whether new spot buying comes in afterward. So far, the data says it hasn’t.
The bulls and bears are now at loggerheads. Strive’s CEO says this is a good time to increase exposure, and negative funding rates suggest that long positions have been thoroughly flushed out. But an analyst at Material Indicators warns that if the weekly RSI falls below 41.5, the next target could be $57,700.
The key question is whether the weekly candle can close back above $68,000. If it can’t, the narrative of a bull-market pullback will have to be rewritten. Are you cutting your losses, sitting tight, or buying the dip? Let’s talk in the comments.
Follow me to keep an eye on weekly closes and ETF fund flows.
$BTC #比特币跌破200周均线 $ETH $BTW
Disclaimer: The content above is based solely on publicly available reports and does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risks; please make decisions with caution.
On November 13, BTC plunged to $67,500 intraday, breaking below the 200-week moving average (around $67,993). It was the first time in nearly three months that the price had tested this level—and it broke straight through.
The data is brutal. Over the past 24 hours, $1.5 billion in positions were liquidated across the market, including $900 million in BTC long positions—more than 90% of the total. ETFs have seen $1.9 billion in net outflows so far in November, with institutional investors not stepping in to buy the dip. The daily RSI has fallen to the low 20s, an historically extreme oversold level from a technical perspective.
Why does the 200-week moving average matter? It represents the average weekly price over the past four years, and several bear-market bottoms have formed around this level. But after BTC broke below it in 2022, the price ultimately bottomed 34% below the average. So “the 200-week moving average is the bottom” and “there could be another one-third drop after a break below it” both refer to the same level. The difference is whether new spot buying comes in afterward. So far, the data says it hasn’t.
The bulls and bears are now at loggerheads. Strive’s CEO says this is a good time to increase exposure, and negative funding rates suggest that long positions have been thoroughly flushed out. But an analyst at Material Indicators warns that if the weekly RSI falls below 41.5, the next target could be $57,700.
The key question is whether the weekly candle can close back above $68,000. If it can’t, the narrative of a bull-market pullback will have to be rewritten. Are you cutting your losses, sitting tight, or buying the dip? Let’s talk in the comments.
Follow me to keep an eye on weekly closes and ETF fund flows.
$BTC #比特币跌破200周均线 $ETH $BTW
Disclaimer: The content above is based solely on publicly available reports and does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risks; please make decisions with caution.