The 16:00 four-hour candle closed below $68,000 again, and the unrealized profit on my short position has grown. At 17:00, $BTC was around $66,936, down 2.6% over 24 hours; $ETH was around $1,894, down 2.0% over 24 hours, slipping back below $1,900 again (actual data from CoinGecko).
Today’s candles are worth discussing: the 12:00 four-hour candle closed at $66,691, while the 16:00 candle closed around $67,133—two consecutive four-hour candles closing below the 200-week moving average (around $68,000). The morning candle confirmed the first break below it; the afternoon candle showed that the breakdown was deepening. This is the first time in 11 weeks that the 200-week moving average has been broken on consecutive closes (last touched on August 19, Cointelegraph).
$ETH followed a similar pattern: it fell below $1,900 at 12:00, managed to close back above $1,900 around 15:00, then slipped below it again in the afternoon. It’s now at $1,894, just $12 above today’s low of $1,882.
Short position update #5: I opened the short this morning at 07:04 between $68,000 and $69,000, with a midpoint entry of $68,500. At the current price of $66,936, the price has fallen 2.28%, giving me an unrealized gain of about +228% on 100x margin. Around 15:00, it was +167%, so the profit has grown again. Honestly, this trade is now profitable, and the unrealized gain is the largest it’s been since I opened the position. But I’m not chasing the drop: the price has been below $68,000 for nearly six hours, and weekend trading volume will only be thinner. Chasing a short here would mean selling into a decline near support. The plan hasn’t changed: keep holding, with target one at $65,000 (take half off when it gets there) and target two at $62,300–$62,800. The $70,500 stop-loss and the rule to admit I’m wrong if a four-hour candle closes above $70,214 have both remained untouched. A rebound toward $68,000 that fails to hold would still be an opportunity to add to the short.
Looking down: a liquidation cluster of roughly $28.2 million in long positions sits near $65,413, with target one at $65,000 just above it. A break below $65,000 could accelerate the move. Looking up: $68,000 is now the first resistance; only a move back above it would suggest stabilization.
There’s not much data this weekend; next week will be the real test: Fed Chair speaks Monday, U.S. retail sales Tuesday, Nvidia earnings Wednesday, and FOMC minutes Thursday. Are you holding your positions overnight this weekend, or taking half off the table first? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: actual CoinGecko data at 17:00 Beijing time on November 14; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
Today’s candles are worth discussing: the 12:00 four-hour candle closed at $66,691, while the 16:00 candle closed around $67,133—two consecutive four-hour candles closing below the 200-week moving average (around $68,000). The morning candle confirmed the first break below it; the afternoon candle showed that the breakdown was deepening. This is the first time in 11 weeks that the 200-week moving average has been broken on consecutive closes (last touched on August 19, Cointelegraph).
$ETH followed a similar pattern: it fell below $1,900 at 12:00, managed to close back above $1,900 around 15:00, then slipped below it again in the afternoon. It’s now at $1,894, just $12 above today’s low of $1,882.
Short position update #5: I opened the short this morning at 07:04 between $68,000 and $69,000, with a midpoint entry of $68,500. At the current price of $66,936, the price has fallen 2.28%, giving me an unrealized gain of about +228% on 100x margin. Around 15:00, it was +167%, so the profit has grown again. Honestly, this trade is now profitable, and the unrealized gain is the largest it’s been since I opened the position. But I’m not chasing the drop: the price has been below $68,000 for nearly six hours, and weekend trading volume will only be thinner. Chasing a short here would mean selling into a decline near support. The plan hasn’t changed: keep holding, with target one at $65,000 (take half off when it gets there) and target two at $62,300–$62,800. The $70,500 stop-loss and the rule to admit I’m wrong if a four-hour candle closes above $70,214 have both remained untouched. A rebound toward $68,000 that fails to hold would still be an opportunity to add to the short.
Looking down: a liquidation cluster of roughly $28.2 million in long positions sits near $65,413, with target one at $65,000 just above it. A break below $65,000 could accelerate the move. Looking up: $68,000 is now the first resistance; only a move back above it would suggest stabilization.
There’s not much data this weekend; next week will be the real test: Fed Chair speaks Monday, U.S. retail sales Tuesday, Nvidia earnings Wednesday, and FOMC minutes Thursday. Are you holding your positions overnight this weekend, or taking half off the table first? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: actual CoinGecko data at 17:00 Beijing time on November 14; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
