Why did it drop? Three things happened at once
1️⃣ Rate hike expectations are back. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, and core CPI rose 0.3%. Core inflation has now exceeded expectations for the third month in a row. The market has priced in a December rate hike as a certainty, and the 10-year Treasury yield has topped 5.1%. With risk-free returns above 5%, who’s in a hurry to catch a falling knife?
2️⃣ Money is flowing out. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows for seven consecutive trading days, with $2.35 billion redeemed over two weeks. BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounted for 90% of that. Buying hasn’t just weakened—it’s turning into a systematic retreat.
3️⃣ Leverage hasn’t been fully flushed out. Most of the liquidations over the past 24 hours were long positions, accounting for 90%. Funding rates are still above zero—as prices keep falling, longs are still paying to hold their positions.
Without capitulation, there can be no bottom.
If rate hike expectations, ETF outflows, and shrinking stablecoin supply don’t change, any rebound won’t go far.
⚠️ There are no ETF creations or redemptions over the weekend, so liquidity is thinner and sharp wicks are more likely. Don’t use leverage to buy the dip.$ETH $SOL #美国PPI年率6.5%，低于预期或缓解BTC压力
1️⃣ Rate hike expectations are back. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, and core CPI rose 0.3%. Core inflation has now exceeded expectations for the third month in a row. The market has priced in a December rate hike as a certainty, and the 10-year Treasury yield has topped 5.1%. With risk-free returns above 5%, who’s in a hurry to catch a falling knife?
2️⃣ Money is flowing out. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows for seven consecutive trading days, with $2.35 billion redeemed over two weeks. BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounted for 90% of that. Buying hasn’t just weakened—it’s turning into a systematic retreat.
3️⃣ Leverage hasn’t been fully flushed out. Most of the liquidations over the past 24 hours were long positions, accounting for 90%. Funding rates are still above zero—as prices keep falling, longs are still paying to hold their positions.
Without capitulation, there can be no bottom.
If rate hike expectations, ETF outflows, and shrinking stablecoin supply don’t change, any rebound won’t go far.
⚠️ There are no ETF creations or redemptions over the weekend, so liquidity is thinner and sharp wicks are more likely. Don’t use leverage to buy the dip.$ETH $SOL #美国PPI年率6.5%，低于预期或缓解BTC压力
