$BTC Lately, I really haven’t felt like livestreaming. Maybe I’m going through a period of burnout. Spending a lot of time every day explaining market conditions and analytical logic, while constantly correcting trading mindsets that have already taken root, can really wear you down over time. I’ve noticed that many guys have been conditioned by the market to think bullishly by default: when prices rise, they think they’ll keep rising; when they fall, they think they’ve dropped too much and are due for a rebound. It’s as if going long is the normal thing to do, while shorting has become something people find hard to accept. But the market has never said you can only go long. I’ve always believed that when trading, you should only try to make money within the limits of what you understand. Don’t try to get involved in every market move, and don’t assume you can figure out every market.
To put it bluntly, you haven’t even figured out Bitcoin, yet you’re already dreaming of becoming a genius stock trader. 😂 How many crypto streamers can really trade U.S. stocks well? I know I can’t. Trading U.S. stocks requires researching far too many things: fundamentals, earnings reports, news, policy, industry developments, market demand—even the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy can affect share prices. You can’t understand all that by reading a couple of news articles. Do you really have enough time and energy to research it? Can you really get to grips with all those variables? Without your own research framework, what people call buying the dip or chasing the highs is often just gambling on a fifty-fifty chance. By comparison, I think Bitcoin’s trading logic is relatively simple. Over the long term, supply and demand remain important factors affecting its price. What we need to focus on is ETF fund flows, changes in large institutions’ holdings, fund movements on exchanges, and shifts in market leverage and liquidity. Of course, that doesn’t mean Bitcoin is uncomplicated; it just means there’s at least a relatively clear analytical framework that can be tracked consistently. Getting the overall direction right, managing your position size, and setting reasonable stop-losses matter far more than trying to guess the top and bottom every day.
Why have I been leaning bearish lately?
I’ve already explained my reasoning repeatedly in previous articles and livestreams:
1. The impact of the tech stock sell-off on risk assets.
2. Potential selling pressure caused by the crypto theft in the hacking incident.
3. Fund flows on exchanges and changes in institutional capital.
4. The impact on liquidity of changes in monetary policy and interest rates in Japan and the United States.
To put it bluntly, you haven’t even figured out Bitcoin, yet you’re already dreaming of becoming a genius stock trader. 😂 How many crypto streamers can really trade U.S. stocks well? I know I can’t. Trading U.S. stocks requires researching far too many things: fundamentals, earnings reports, news, policy, industry developments, market demand—even the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy can affect share prices. You can’t understand all that by reading a couple of news articles. Do you really have enough time and energy to research it? Can you really get to grips with all those variables? Without your own research framework, what people call buying the dip or chasing the highs is often just gambling on a fifty-fifty chance. By comparison, I think Bitcoin’s trading logic is relatively simple. Over the long term, supply and demand remain important factors affecting its price. What we need to focus on is ETF fund flows, changes in large institutions’ holdings, fund movements on exchanges, and shifts in market leverage and liquidity. Of course, that doesn’t mean Bitcoin is uncomplicated; it just means there’s at least a relatively clear analytical framework that can be tracked consistently. Getting the overall direction right, managing your position size, and setting reasonable stop-losses matter far more than trying to guess the top and bottom every day.
Why have I been leaning bearish lately?
I’ve already explained my reasoning repeatedly in previous articles and livestreams:
1. The impact of the tech stock sell-off on risk assets.
2. Potential selling pressure caused by the crypto theft in the hacking incident.
3. Fund flows on exchanges and changes in institutional capital.
4. The impact on liquidity of changes in monetary policy and interest rates in Japan and the United States.
