$TRUMP
$XAU Wall Street upheaval: the hold evaporates and the Fed considers a “half-point” shock

A week ago, markets still gave the Fed roughly a one-in-four chance of holding rates steady in December. Today, a hold is no longer on the table, and the debate has shifted to the size of the hike: a quarter point or a half point, and whether a second hike will follow in January. According to Investing.com’s Fed rate monitor, the probability of a quarter-point hike on December 9 is 90.5%, and of a half-point hike, 9.5%, compared with a 76.5% chance of a hike and a 23.5% chance of a hold a week ago. Meanwhile, the probability of two hikes by January stands at 67.5%. Between then and now, Christopher Waller’s comments have ignited debate over a half-point hike, and major banks—from Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs to Bank of America—have revised their forecasts.
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