It bounced back after losing 67,000, but 68,000 hasn’t been reclaimed yet—I’m treating this rebound as a bull trap.
At 15:00, $BTC was around $67,359, down 2.43% over 24 hours; $ETH was around $1,904.63, down 1.72% (live data from CoinGecko). The 24-hour ranges were BTC $66,577.82–$69,904.62 and ETH $1,882.26–$1,979.79. At noon, the 12:00 hourly candle closed at $66,690.70 for BTC and $1,882.26 for ETH, losing both the 67,000 and 1,900 round-number levels in the same hour. ETH has just climbed back above 1,900, and BTC has bounced about $780 from its intraday low, but the 200-week moving average, around $67,993, is still overhead and hasn’t been reclaimed.
First, the verified trigger for this drop: NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang resigned on November 12 (confirmed by several major media outlets, including USA Today, Al Jazeera, and CoinDesk). CFO Colette Kress became interim CEO, and NVIDIA shares briefly fell around 13–14%. On Friday, this news hammered U.S. tech stocks, and BTC followed, breaking below 70,000 and 67,000. About $1.3–1.6 billion in liquidations hit the crypto market over 24 hours overnight, with longs accounting for 90% (CoinGlass data). U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen net outflows of about $1.56 billion year to date; on Thursday alone, another roughly $284 million flowed out, marking a sixth consecutive trading day of outflows (SoSoValue data).
Short position update #4: The short opened today at 07:04 in the 68,000–69,000 range, with an entry midpoint of 68,500. At the current price of 67,359, the price is down 1.67%, for an unrealized gain of about +167% on 100x margin—down from +207% around 13:00. To be honest, this rebound has eaten into some of the unrealized profit, but the position is still in the green. The stop-loss above 70,500 and invalidation on a 4-hour close above 70,214 have not been triggered, so I’m holding. Targets remain 65,000 (take half off there first) and 62,300–62,800.
A quick look at the technicals: The first hurdle above is 68,000–68,100. There’s a short liquidation cluster worth about $52.8 million near $68,082 (alphafinance data). If the rebound meets resistance there, that’s a spot to add to shorts—not to chase longs. Above that is the 70,000 round-number level. Below, there’s another long liquidation cluster worth about $28.2 million at $65,413; a break below 65,000 would accelerate the move. The weekly candle closes Monday at 08:00, and only then will the outcome around the 200-week moving average near 68,000 be confirmed. The weekly RSI at 41.5 is another key level (according to Keith Alan): a close below it would bring the cycle low at 57,700 back into play. SOL is leading major coins lower today, down 5.3%, and altcoins are still losing steam.
The plan is unchanged: keep holding the short; don’t chase shorts or add below 68,000; if price rebounds to around 68,000–68,100 and is rejected without a 4-hour close above that zone, consider a small short position, with the stop still above 70,500. A 4-hour close below 68,000 on the 16:00 candle would be another confirmation. Invalidation: exit if there’s a 4-hour close above 70,214; only consider flipping long if the daily candle closes back above the 200-day moving average at 73,125. Use only a very small portion of total capital for 100x margin.
Next week’s catalysts are lined up: Fed Chair speaks Monday, U.S. retail sales Tuesday, NVIDIA earnings Wednesday, and FOMC minutes Thursday. Do you think the weekly candle can close back above 68,000 by Monday at 08:00? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: live CoinGecko data at 15:00 Beijing time on November 14; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
At 15:00, $BTC was around $67,359, down 2.43% over 24 hours; $ETH was around $1,904.63, down 1.72% (live data from CoinGecko). The 24-hour ranges were BTC $66,577.82–$69,904.62 and ETH $1,882.26–$1,979.79. At noon, the 12:00 hourly candle closed at $66,690.70 for BTC and $1,882.26 for ETH, losing both the 67,000 and 1,900 round-number levels in the same hour. ETH has just climbed back above 1,900, and BTC has bounced about $780 from its intraday low, but the 200-week moving average, around $67,993, is still overhead and hasn’t been reclaimed.
First, the verified trigger for this drop: NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang resigned on November 12 (confirmed by several major media outlets, including USA Today, Al Jazeera, and CoinDesk). CFO Colette Kress became interim CEO, and NVIDIA shares briefly fell around 13–14%. On Friday, this news hammered U.S. tech stocks, and BTC followed, breaking below 70,000 and 67,000. About $1.3–1.6 billion in liquidations hit the crypto market over 24 hours overnight, with longs accounting for 90% (CoinGlass data). U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen net outflows of about $1.56 billion year to date; on Thursday alone, another roughly $284 million flowed out, marking a sixth consecutive trading day of outflows (SoSoValue data).
Short position update #4: The short opened today at 07:04 in the 68,000–69,000 range, with an entry midpoint of 68,500. At the current price of 67,359, the price is down 1.67%, for an unrealized gain of about +167% on 100x margin—down from +207% around 13:00. To be honest, this rebound has eaten into some of the unrealized profit, but the position is still in the green. The stop-loss above 70,500 and invalidation on a 4-hour close above 70,214 have not been triggered, so I’m holding. Targets remain 65,000 (take half off there first) and 62,300–62,800.
A quick look at the technicals: The first hurdle above is 68,000–68,100. There’s a short liquidation cluster worth about $52.8 million near $68,082 (alphafinance data). If the rebound meets resistance there, that’s a spot to add to shorts—not to chase longs. Above that is the 70,000 round-number level. Below, there’s another long liquidation cluster worth about $28.2 million at $65,413; a break below 65,000 would accelerate the move. The weekly candle closes Monday at 08:00, and only then will the outcome around the 200-week moving average near 68,000 be confirmed. The weekly RSI at 41.5 is another key level (according to Keith Alan): a close below it would bring the cycle low at 57,700 back into play. SOL is leading major coins lower today, down 5.3%, and altcoins are still losing steam.
The plan is unchanged: keep holding the short; don’t chase shorts or add below 68,000; if price rebounds to around 68,000–68,100 and is rejected without a 4-hour close above that zone, consider a small short position, with the stop still above 70,500. A 4-hour close below 68,000 on the 16:00 candle would be another confirmation. Invalidation: exit if there’s a 4-hour close above 70,214; only consider flipping long if the daily candle closes back above the 200-day moving average at 73,125. Use only a very small portion of total capital for 100x margin.
Next week’s catalysts are lined up: Fed Chair speaks Monday, U.S. retail sales Tuesday, NVIDIA earnings Wednesday, and FOMC minutes Thursday. Do you think the weekly candle can close back above 68,000 by Monday at 08:00? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: live CoinGecko data at 15:00 Beijing time on November 14; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
