The difficulty adjustment has landed, but hashrate hasn’t returned—and this round of miner capitulation isn’t over yet
The difficulty dropped 9.13% early this morning, from 148.36T to 134.82T—the biggest reduction since June.
But at the start of the new cycle, blocks are taking 11.2 minutes to mine, slower than the 10-minute target, and hashrate is around 905 EH/s, even lower than yesterday’s 929. After the difficulty drop, the shut-down mining rigs still haven’t come back online.
Just 8 blocks into the next adjustment period, the early estimate is for another 10.8% drop (an early estimate, still highly volatile). It’s as if miners are voting with their feet: a 9% reduction isn’t enough.
On the price front: $BTC is around $67,314, with an overnight low of $66,456. It fell below the 200-week moving average at $67,893, hitting its lowest level since August.
My take: The question in this morning’s article—“Will hashrate come back?”—has been answered: it hasn’t. This isn’t miners shutting down to weather the storm; capitulation is still underway.
The key point: A difficulty reduction helps the mining rigs that are still running, but it can’t bring back those that have already shut down. The real sign that the bleeding has stopped isn’t the difficulty figure; it’s block times returning to 10 minutes first.
But don’t overlook the other side: RSI at 23, the Fear Index at 13, open interest in futures down 7.2% in a day, and funding rates near zero—all suggest that panic and leverage have mostly been flushed out. Downward momentum has reached an extreme; what’s missing is evidence that buyers are coming back.
Watch three variables next: whether block times return to 10 minutes + whether the weekly close on Sunday can get back above the 200-week moving average at $67,893 + whether the ETF’s seven-day outflow streak ends on Monday. The outlook only changes if two of the three turn positive.
Do you think miners are “shutting down and waiting for prices to rise,” or have they “really reached their limit”?
#比特币 #挖矿 #BTC
The above is for market information only and does not constitute investment advice.
The difficulty dropped 9.13% early this morning, from 148.36T to 134.82T—the biggest reduction since June.
But at the start of the new cycle, blocks are taking 11.2 minutes to mine, slower than the 10-minute target, and hashrate is around 905 EH/s, even lower than yesterday’s 929. After the difficulty drop, the shut-down mining rigs still haven’t come back online.
Just 8 blocks into the next adjustment period, the early estimate is for another 10.8% drop (an early estimate, still highly volatile). It’s as if miners are voting with their feet: a 9% reduction isn’t enough.
On the price front: $BTC is around $67,314, with an overnight low of $66,456. It fell below the 200-week moving average at $67,893, hitting its lowest level since August.
My take: The question in this morning’s article—“Will hashrate come back?”—has been answered: it hasn’t. This isn’t miners shutting down to weather the storm; capitulation is still underway.
The key point: A difficulty reduction helps the mining rigs that are still running, but it can’t bring back those that have already shut down. The real sign that the bleeding has stopped isn’t the difficulty figure; it’s block times returning to 10 minutes first.
But don’t overlook the other side: RSI at 23, the Fear Index at 13, open interest in futures down 7.2% in a day, and funding rates near zero—all suggest that panic and leverage have mostly been flushed out. Downward momentum has reached an extreme; what’s missing is evidence that buyers are coming back.
Watch three variables next: whether block times return to 10 minutes + whether the weekly close on Sunday can get back above the 200-week moving average at $67,893 + whether the ETF’s seven-day outflow streak ends on Monday. The outlook only changes if two of the three turn positive.
Do you think miners are “shutting down and waiting for prices to rise,” or have they “really reached their limit”?
#比特币 #挖矿 #BTC
The above is for market information only and does not constitute investment advice.