Opportunity Screening | Afternoon Session (Saturday)
No new positions opened.
BTC around 67,280 (around 68,380 this morning). The short confirmation given this morning has played out—the 08:00 four-hour candle closed cleanly below Friday’s spot low around 67,568, perpetuals low around 67,449, and March weekly low around 67,360 (spot close around 66,756, perpetuals close around 66,728), then extended lower, with spot reaching a low around 66,456 and perpetuals around 66,428. 67k has been breached. The current 12:00 four-hour candle has not yet closed; price has weakly rebounded from the low to around 67,280, with the spot hourly high around 67,346, near but not yet back above 67,360. The midpoint has printed; don’t chase shorts. The Five Elements remain deep in Water, not yet emerging into Wood, and this rebound is no place to catch a falling knife.
Watch levels (updated; do not open positions at the current price): Further confirmation = after a weak rebound fails (unable to hold around 67,360 / 67,568; if weaker, it won’t reach 68,902), price then cleanly breaks below today’s low around 66,456 / 66,428 and extends lower. First watch the March 23 weekly low around 65,000, then the July–August water bottom around 62,275–62,535. Near-term invalidation = reclaim and hold above around 67,568, then watch 68,902 / 70k. Original invalidation remains a reclaim and hold above 78,210, then watch 80k.
ETH around 1,905 (around 1,930 since 08:00, session about −1.2%, low around 1,878); SOL around 75.9 (around 78.2 since 08:00, session about −2.8%, low around 74.9): ETH is slightly stronger, SOL weaker. Both are weak rebounds after breaking down; there is no clear hedging level, so don’t chase. INJ remains in the middle of the post-rally fire phase from last night (around 8.18, high around 8.38); don’t chase. NEAR / HYPE and TIA, etc., are weak in line with the trend; no levels, no chase. Don’t chase ARB (unlock around 11/15).
U.S. and Hong Kong cash markets are closed for the weekend; no new levels. The main tension remains liquidity / interest rates. The Dollar Index closed Friday around 103.41 (around 103.27 in the evening session), still near a 19-month high. A December rate hike remains priced in at nearly 100% (about 90% for 25 bp and 10% for 50 bp). Spot ETFs recorded another net outflow of around $185 million on Friday, the seventh consecutive trading day. NVDA’s earnings report is still scheduled for 11/17. The risk of quantum computing breaking encryption remains secondary.
Discipline: Keep each position’s exposure within tolerable limits (reference: ≤5%); take profits promptly when planned levels are reached. This screening is for opportunity scanning and risk monitoring, not trade signals.
$BTC $ETH
No new positions opened.
BTC around 67,280 (around 68,380 this morning). The short confirmation given this morning has played out—the 08:00 four-hour candle closed cleanly below Friday’s spot low around 67,568, perpetuals low around 67,449, and March weekly low around 67,360 (spot close around 66,756, perpetuals close around 66,728), then extended lower, with spot reaching a low around 66,456 and perpetuals around 66,428. 67k has been breached. The current 12:00 four-hour candle has not yet closed; price has weakly rebounded from the low to around 67,280, with the spot hourly high around 67,346, near but not yet back above 67,360. The midpoint has printed; don’t chase shorts. The Five Elements remain deep in Water, not yet emerging into Wood, and this rebound is no place to catch a falling knife.
Watch levels (updated; do not open positions at the current price): Further confirmation = after a weak rebound fails (unable to hold around 67,360 / 67,568; if weaker, it won’t reach 68,902), price then cleanly breaks below today’s low around 66,456 / 66,428 and extends lower. First watch the March 23 weekly low around 65,000, then the July–August water bottom around 62,275–62,535. Near-term invalidation = reclaim and hold above around 67,568, then watch 68,902 / 70k. Original invalidation remains a reclaim and hold above 78,210, then watch 80k.
ETH around 1,905 (around 1,930 since 08:00, session about −1.2%, low around 1,878); SOL around 75.9 (around 78.2 since 08:00, session about −2.8%, low around 74.9): ETH is slightly stronger, SOL weaker. Both are weak rebounds after breaking down; there is no clear hedging level, so don’t chase. INJ remains in the middle of the post-rally fire phase from last night (around 8.18, high around 8.38); don’t chase. NEAR / HYPE and TIA, etc., are weak in line with the trend; no levels, no chase. Don’t chase ARB (unlock around 11/15).
U.S. and Hong Kong cash markets are closed for the weekend; no new levels. The main tension remains liquidity / interest rates. The Dollar Index closed Friday around 103.41 (around 103.27 in the evening session), still near a 19-month high. A December rate hike remains priced in at nearly 100% (about 90% for 25 bp and 10% for 50 bp). Spot ETFs recorded another net outflow of around $185 million on Friday, the seventh consecutive trading day. NVDA’s earnings report is still scheduled for 11/17. The risk of quantum computing breaking encryption remains secondary.
Discipline: Keep each position’s exposure within tolerable limits (reference: ≤5%); take profits promptly when planned levels are reached. This screening is for opportunity scanning and risk monitoring, not trade signals.
$BTC $ETH