From $82.39 to $74.83, down 3.6% in 24 hours; a 9.2% drop from the 24-hour high to low: SOL is the worst-performing of the five major coins today. It failed to hold $80, and the $77.6 support level has also been breached.
#SOL
SOL is on the Square’s “Most Searched” list today, but not because it’s rising. First, let’s check how the five major coins are doing today (OKX, 14:00 Beijing time snapshot): Bitcoin $67,165, -1.6%; Ethereum $1,904, -0.5%; BNB $620, -1.3%; XRP $0.9959, -2.0%; SOL $75.97, -3.6%, the biggest drop. The Square Fear and Greed Index is 17, indicating extreme fear (13:29 snapshot).
With a drop like this, let’s start with three sets of numbers:
First, the timeline: SOL was still at $98.16 on November 3. It has fallen 23.8% in 11 days to today’s $74.83. In early October, it was still above $120, so the correction over the entire period has now exceeded 36%. A week ago (at the November 7 close), it was still at $89.73; it has fallen 15.3% in seven days.
Second, the technical picture: the 50-day exponential moving average at $97.55 has fallen below the 200-day exponential moving average at $98.62. A death cross formed yesterday (reported by FXStreet on November 13). The daily RSI is just 17.5, deep in oversold territory (CoinEye live data today). The immediate support at $77.6 identified by FXStreet yesterday was decisively breached by today’s low of $74.83; the next level to watch is $67.5.
Third, fund flows: SOL futures open interest fell 6.3% in 24 hours to $4.82 billion (CoinGlass, reported by Invezz on November 13); about $1.64 billion was liquidated across the market in 24 hours (CoinGlass). Leverage is fleeing, and dip buyers haven’t shown up yet.
$SOL is currently at $75.97 (OKX, 14:00 Beijing time snapshot; Finnhub showed $75.96 at the same time, confirming the figures), with 24-hour trading volume of about $81.17 million.
My take: SOL is “oversold, but not done falling yet.” With the RSI at 17.5, a short-term bounce could happen at any time, but treat it as a pressure-release valve, not a reversal. The death cross has just formed, open interest is still shrinking, and Bitcoin has already fallen below its 200-week moving average (I calculated it at about $67,959 this morning; the current price of $67,165 is below it). XRP is at $0.9959, also below $1, and money is still flowing out of the market as a whole. To change my view, I’d need to see at least one of two signals: SOL reclaiming $80 and holding above it for two days, or futures open interest bottoming out and rising again. On the other hand, if it closes below $74.83 again, the next level to watch is $67.5.
Do you hold any SOL? Did you add to your position above $80 during this pullback, or are you waiting to see what happens below $70?
——Bao Bao
#SOL
SOL is on the Square’s “Most Searched” list today, but not because it’s rising. First, let’s check how the five major coins are doing today (OKX, 14:00 Beijing time snapshot): Bitcoin $67,165, -1.6%; Ethereum $1,904, -0.5%; BNB $620, -1.3%; XRP $0.9959, -2.0%; SOL $75.97, -3.6%, the biggest drop. The Square Fear and Greed Index is 17, indicating extreme fear (13:29 snapshot).
With a drop like this, let’s start with three sets of numbers:
First, the timeline: SOL was still at $98.16 on November 3. It has fallen 23.8% in 11 days to today’s $74.83. In early October, it was still above $120, so the correction over the entire period has now exceeded 36%. A week ago (at the November 7 close), it was still at $89.73; it has fallen 15.3% in seven days.
Second, the technical picture: the 50-day exponential moving average at $97.55 has fallen below the 200-day exponential moving average at $98.62. A death cross formed yesterday (reported by FXStreet on November 13). The daily RSI is just 17.5, deep in oversold territory (CoinEye live data today). The immediate support at $77.6 identified by FXStreet yesterday was decisively breached by today’s low of $74.83; the next level to watch is $67.5.
Third, fund flows: SOL futures open interest fell 6.3% in 24 hours to $4.82 billion (CoinGlass, reported by Invezz on November 13); about $1.64 billion was liquidated across the market in 24 hours (CoinGlass). Leverage is fleeing, and dip buyers haven’t shown up yet.
$SOL is currently at $75.97 (OKX, 14:00 Beijing time snapshot; Finnhub showed $75.96 at the same time, confirming the figures), with 24-hour trading volume of about $81.17 million.
My take: SOL is “oversold, but not done falling yet.” With the RSI at 17.5, a short-term bounce could happen at any time, but treat it as a pressure-release valve, not a reversal. The death cross has just formed, open interest is still shrinking, and Bitcoin has already fallen below its 200-week moving average (I calculated it at about $67,959 this morning; the current price of $67,165 is below it). XRP is at $0.9959, also below $1, and money is still flowing out of the market as a whole. To change my view, I’d need to see at least one of two signals: SOL reclaiming $80 and holding above it for two days, or futures open interest bottoming out and rising again. On the other hand, if it closes below $74.83 again, the next level to watch is $67.5.
Do you hold any SOL? Did you add to your position above $80 during this pullback, or are you waiting to see what happens below $70?
——Bao Bao
