One line on the chart for $BTC is getting all the attention this weekend: the 200-week moving average.
What is it? The average Bitcoin closing price over the last 200 weeks, or roughly four years. A kind of “cycle average price.” It moves slowly, and that’s exactly why people watch it.
Where things stand (BeInCrypto, Coinglass data, Nov. 14):
– BTC slid to around $67,600, just below that average (~$67,900)
– $1.23B in positions liquidated in 24 hours, including $1.02B in bets on prices rising
– 163,631 traders liquidated, compared with 112,947 the day before
– $ETH fell back to around $1,900
– Fear & Greed Index at 13; it was at 53 a month ago (Alternative.me)
Here’s what interests me about this: a liquidation isn’t someone selling because they’re scared. It’s a leveraged position—partly funded with borrowed money—that the platform automatically closes when the price crosses a threshold. This forced selling pushes the price lower, triggering the next round of liquidations. About $1B was wiped out in the first 12 hours. People who hold their coins without borrowing feel the drop, but nobody sells on their behalf.
My take: there’s nothing magical about this average. It matters mostly because thousands of traders are watching it at the same time. In July, it acted as a floor before the August rebound. That doesn’t guarantee anything this time.
Three dates to keep in mind: Sunday’s weekly close (midnight UTC), Strategy’s removal from the MSCI indices on November 30, and the Fed’s decision on December 9.
When the Fear Index drops to 13, do you turn off your screens or take a closer look?
#Bitcoin #Liquidations #CryptoMarket
What is it? The average Bitcoin closing price over the last 200 weeks, or roughly four years. A kind of “cycle average price.” It moves slowly, and that’s exactly why people watch it.
Where things stand (BeInCrypto, Coinglass data, Nov. 14):
– BTC slid to around $67,600, just below that average (~$67,900)
– $1.23B in positions liquidated in 24 hours, including $1.02B in bets on prices rising
– 163,631 traders liquidated, compared with 112,947 the day before
– $ETH fell back to around $1,900
– Fear & Greed Index at 13; it was at 53 a month ago (Alternative.me)
Here’s what interests me about this: a liquidation isn’t someone selling because they’re scared. It’s a leveraged position—partly funded with borrowed money—that the platform automatically closes when the price crosses a threshold. This forced selling pushes the price lower, triggering the next round of liquidations. About $1B was wiped out in the first 12 hours. People who hold their coins without borrowing feel the drop, but nobody sells on their behalf.
My take: there’s nothing magical about this average. It matters mostly because thousands of traders are watching it at the same time. In July, it acted as a floor before the August rebound. That doesn’t guarantee anything this time.
Three dates to keep in mind: Sunday’s weekly close (midnight UTC), Strategy’s removal from the MSCI indices on November 30, and the Fed’s decision on December 9.
When the Fear Index drops to 13, do you turn off your screens or take a closer look?
#Bitcoin #Liquidations #CryptoMarket
