UPDATE $BTC 14/11/2026
■ What’s different from yesterday: Broke below 67.5k to 66.6k. D1 longs were swept from 96% down to 0.79%. We’re entering a deep-crash scenario; no more sideways action.
■ New scenarios through Christmas:
1. 70% chance of falling to 62k, then 58k: Losing 66k means a drop to 62,300, the August low. Breaking below 62k means a drop to 58k–60k, the D1 EMA200.
2. 25% chance of a rebound to 68k–70k, then another crash: A rebound to test the 1h EMA7 at 67.9k is a short opportunity.
3. 5% chance of a V-shaped recovery to 75k: Would need Fed/ETF news; very unlikely.
■ Key levels: Support at 66k, 62.3k, 58k. Resistance at 67.9k, 71.2k.
■ Action: Don’t try to catch the bottom. Sell the rebound at 68k. Only buy through DCA at 62k and 58k. Stay out if it breaks below 58k.
In short: Worse than yesterday; 62k is the target this week.
■ What’s different from yesterday: Broke below 67.5k to 66.6k. D1 longs were swept from 96% down to 0.79%. We’re entering a deep-crash scenario; no more sideways action.
■ New scenarios through Christmas:
1. 70% chance of falling to 62k, then 58k: Losing 66k means a drop to 62,300, the August low. Breaking below 62k means a drop to 58k–60k, the D1 EMA200.
2. 25% chance of a rebound to 68k–70k, then another crash: A rebound to test the 1h EMA7 at 67.9k is a short opportunity.
3. 5% chance of a V-shaped recovery to 75k: Would need Fed/ETF news; very unlikely.
■ Key levels: Support at 66k, 62.3k, 58k. Resistance at 67.9k, 71.2k.
■ Action: Don’t try to catch the bottom. Sell the rebound at 68k. Only buy through DCA at 62k and 58k. Stay out if it breaks below 58k.
In short: Worse than yesterday; 62k is the target this week.
