#美国ppi年率6.5%，低于预期或缓解btc压力 PPI came in below expectations, yet BTC fell below $70,000: I waited for the close, and the “relief” never came. Choppy pullback next week.
The group chat was flooded with “inflation is cooling,” but the Nasdaq closed down 0.91%, the 10Y yield rebounded to 5.125%, and BTC broke below $70,000 that night. Why didn’t the data provide support?
📊 Key data
· October PPI rose 6.5% year over year (6.6% expected, 6.3% prior), its highest since November 2022
· Up 0.3% month over month (0.4% expected); September revised up from 1.3% to 1.4%
· Core PPI was unchanged at 5.0% year over year
· CME odds of a 25 bp December rate hike: about 87%–93%; odds of two hikes by March 2027 rose from 50% to 86%
· November 13 close: Dow +0.10%, Nasdaq -0.91%; Binance BTC on November 14: 68,295 (-3.49%)
🔍 The key contradictions
1. It was expectations—not inflation—that were lower. At 6.5%, the reading was only 0.1 percentage point below expectations, but higher than September’s 6.3% and the fastest pace in four years; September’s monthly figure was also revised upward. The slowdown was driven by easing energy prices, but food prices rose 1.3% and transportation and warehousing costs rose 2.0%—upstream pressures are still being passed through.
2. Rate-hike odds shifted only a few points, but the expected path turned more hawkish. CME odds fell from about 96% to 87%–93%, still meaning a hike is “almost certain”; odds of at least two hikes by March 2027 surged from 50% to 86%.
3. Another misleading opening-session snapshot. S&P futures initially rose 0.6% and the 10Y yield fell; by the close, the 10Y had reversed course to 5.125%, the dollar was at a 19-month high, and gold had fallen 4.5% for the week. I was already proven wrong by intraday futures on November 4.
🧊 Three reality checks
1. Don’t mistake “below expectations” for a change in direction. 6.5% is a four-year high; the November 25 core PCE release is the real test.
2. Probabilities are forecasts, not outcomes. The meeting isn’t until December 8–9; Waller said a core monthly reading of ≥0.3% could warrant considering a 50 bp hike.
3. Don’t expect one data point to rescue BTC. The pressure comes from the 10Y breaking above 5%, a strong dollar, roughly 90% of long positions being liquidated, and ETF outflows.
💡 My take
This wasn’t bad news being priced in. A 0.1-percentage-point “surprise” was blown up into a narrative, then the closing bell brought it back to reality. Watch three things: November 25 core PCE, the Fed’s wording after the December 9 meeting, and whether the 10Y yield can come back down.
What I’m doing: I won’t add leverage just because a reading is “below expectations,” and I won’t treat a futures rally as an entry signal. This week’s break below $70,000, the Tor announcement, and the “everything’s falling—find the catalyst” narrative are all part of the same story: markets are pricing the discount rate.
⚠️ Not investment advice. Data may be revised at any time.
Do you think the Fed will hike 25 bp or 50 bp on December 9? Let’s discuss in the comments 👇
Follow @阿Sue的加密日记 · Using data to expose crypto’s false signals
#PPI #USInflation #FederalReserve #Bitcoin #BTC
The group chat was flooded with “inflation is cooling,” but the Nasdaq closed down 0.91%, the 10Y yield rebounded to 5.125%, and BTC broke below $70,000 that night. Why didn’t the data provide support?
📊 Key data
· October PPI rose 6.5% year over year (6.6% expected, 6.3% prior), its highest since November 2022
· Up 0.3% month over month (0.4% expected); September revised up from 1.3% to 1.4%
· Core PPI was unchanged at 5.0% year over year
· CME odds of a 25 bp December rate hike: about 87%–93%; odds of two hikes by March 2027 rose from 50% to 86%
· November 13 close: Dow +0.10%, Nasdaq -0.91%; Binance BTC on November 14: 68,295 (-3.49%)
🔍 The key contradictions
1. It was expectations—not inflation—that were lower. At 6.5%, the reading was only 0.1 percentage point below expectations, but higher than September’s 6.3% and the fastest pace in four years; September’s monthly figure was also revised upward. The slowdown was driven by easing energy prices, but food prices rose 1.3% and transportation and warehousing costs rose 2.0%—upstream pressures are still being passed through.
2. Rate-hike odds shifted only a few points, but the expected path turned more hawkish. CME odds fell from about 96% to 87%–93%, still meaning a hike is “almost certain”; odds of at least two hikes by March 2027 surged from 50% to 86%.
3. Another misleading opening-session snapshot. S&P futures initially rose 0.6% and the 10Y yield fell; by the close, the 10Y had reversed course to 5.125%, the dollar was at a 19-month high, and gold had fallen 4.5% for the week. I was already proven wrong by intraday futures on November 4.
🧊 Three reality checks
1. Don’t mistake “below expectations” for a change in direction. 6.5% is a four-year high; the November 25 core PCE release is the real test.
2. Probabilities are forecasts, not outcomes. The meeting isn’t until December 8–9; Waller said a core monthly reading of ≥0.3% could warrant considering a 50 bp hike.
3. Don’t expect one data point to rescue BTC. The pressure comes from the 10Y breaking above 5%, a strong dollar, roughly 90% of long positions being liquidated, and ETF outflows.
💡 My take
This wasn’t bad news being priced in. A 0.1-percentage-point “surprise” was blown up into a narrative, then the closing bell brought it back to reality. Watch three things: November 25 core PCE, the Fed’s wording after the December 9 meeting, and whether the 10Y yield can come back down.
What I’m doing: I won’t add leverage just because a reading is “below expectations,” and I won’t treat a futures rally as an entry signal. This week’s break below $70,000, the Tor announcement, and the “everything’s falling—find the catalyst” narrative are all part of the same story: markets are pricing the discount rate.
⚠️ Not investment advice. Data may be revised at any time.
Do you think the Fed will hike 25 bp or 50 bp on December 9? Let’s discuss in the comments 👇
Follow @阿Sue的加密日记 · Using data to expose crypto’s false signals
#PPI #USInflation #FederalReserve #Bitcoin #BTC