Bitcoin has fallen below $68,000 again, and U.S. tech stocks are tumbling right along with it.
First, just how bad is the drop?
Over the past couple of days, BTC hit a low near $67,000, its lowest level in more than three months. It has now fallen over 20% from its September peak, while ETH and altcoins have dropped even harder.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are under pressure. Nvidia plunged by double digits at one point amid reports that Jensen Huang was stepping down as CEO. Crypto-related stocks like MSTR and Coinbase have generally fallen more than the broader market—by quite a bit.
The root cause is still macro tightening
October CPI came in hotter than expected, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.1%. Markets are once again betting on a rate hike in December, and the dollar is strengthening. Risk assets hate this combination. Bitcoin has long moved closely with the Nasdaq, and when markets turn sour, people are cutting positions from the same portfolios. We’re all in this together.
On top of that, leverage in the market had piled up too high. As prices started falling, liquidations were triggered one after another, setting off a cascade. Spot ETFs have seen net outflows for several consecutive days, and institutional buying has dried up. The support that had propped up the market is now turning into selling pressure. Quite ironic.
Some people ask: Isn’t Bitcoin supposed to be digital gold? Why is it falling along with tech stocks?
Here’s what I think:
When interest rates are rising rapidly and markets are gripped by fear, even the best narrative doesn’t matter. Everyone’s first priority is to reduce risk exposure, and the most volatile assets are the first to be sold. People will only listen to the story once sentiment stabilizes.
Don’t expect an immediate V-shaped recovery in the short term. There are no signs of improvement in rate-hike expectations, the dollar, or ETF flows.
【But there’s no need to declare that a new bear market is here, either. This looks more like a deep correction after risk appetite contracted, not a systemic collapse.】
I’ll be watching two things next:
The Fed’s statements and key economic data, and when ETFs start seeing net inflows again. If macro headwinds stop intensifying and leverage and sentiment have time to reset, there will still be a basis for a rebound.
#加密美股齐跌，下轮反弹的驱动力在哪？
First, just how bad is the drop?
Over the past couple of days, BTC hit a low near $67,000, its lowest level in more than three months. It has now fallen over 20% from its September peak, while ETH and altcoins have dropped even harder.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are under pressure. Nvidia plunged by double digits at one point amid reports that Jensen Huang was stepping down as CEO. Crypto-related stocks like MSTR and Coinbase have generally fallen more than the broader market—by quite a bit.
The root cause is still macro tightening
October CPI came in hotter than expected, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.1%. Markets are once again betting on a rate hike in December, and the dollar is strengthening. Risk assets hate this combination. Bitcoin has long moved closely with the Nasdaq, and when markets turn sour, people are cutting positions from the same portfolios. We’re all in this together.
On top of that, leverage in the market had piled up too high. As prices started falling, liquidations were triggered one after another, setting off a cascade. Spot ETFs have seen net outflows for several consecutive days, and institutional buying has dried up. The support that had propped up the market is now turning into selling pressure. Quite ironic.
Some people ask: Isn’t Bitcoin supposed to be digital gold? Why is it falling along with tech stocks?
Here’s what I think:
When interest rates are rising rapidly and markets are gripped by fear, even the best narrative doesn’t matter. Everyone’s first priority is to reduce risk exposure, and the most volatile assets are the first to be sold. People will only listen to the story once sentiment stabilizes.
Don’t expect an immediate V-shaped recovery in the short term. There are no signs of improvement in rate-hike expectations, the dollar, or ETF flows.
【But there’s no need to declare that a new bear market is here, either. This looks more like a deep correction after risk appetite contracted, not a systemic collapse.】
I’ll be watching two things next:
The Fed’s statements and key economic data, and when ETFs start seeing net inflows again. If macro headwinds stop intensifying and leverage and sentiment have time to reset, there will still be a basis for a rebound.
#加密美股齐跌，下轮反弹的驱动力在哪？