Bitcoin is down 3.72%, but over the last 4 hours it’s only slipped 0.09%. I wouldn’t call that finding a bottom; I’d call it a lack of buyers.
Data captured at 09:41 this morning. All ten coins are down over 24 hours for the second day in a row—not one closed in the green. In the 4-hour window, only BTC, ETH, and BNB have kept their losses within 0.1%; ETH is even up 0.10%, making it look as though they’ve hit the brakes. The smaller coins haven’t had that luck: SOL is down 1.55% over 4 hours, AVAX 1.14%, and TON 0.99%—they’re still sliding.
Today, let’s focus solely on $SOL—not because it fell the most, but because it leads in four categories at once. It’s down 4.90% over 24 hours, the biggest drop among the ten; its RSI is 18.8, the lowest of the ten—the second-lowest is XRP at just 20.6; its 30-day range percentile is 0.9%, with the price at 77.40, just 0.36% above the 30-day low of 77.12; and its volume ratio is 0.11, which, adjusted for today’s daily candle being 7% complete, works out to about 1.56 times the average volume—the only one of the ten above 1x.
Four top rankings together, but the direction is actually the opposite. The one that fell the hardest and is closest to the bottom is also the only one in the whole group still seeing rising volume.
It’s clearer if you split the 24 hours in half. SOL is down 4.90% over 24 hours and 5.01% over the past 12 hours. Those figures are almost identical, which means it was basically flat during the first half of the day, up a mere 0.12%, and the entire five-point drop came in the past half-day. This is beyond a gradual leak; it’s a concentrated selloff. The past 12 hours roughly cover the latter half of the U.S. session through this morning’s Asian session, and the selling happened during that stretch.
Being number one in volume sounds like a good thing, but the move is downward. A high-volume drop and a high-volume bottoming move are opposite patterns. What I see is someone dumping their holdings around 77, not someone buying at this level. To prove buyers are stepping in, we’d at least need to see it reclaim the 7-day moving average at 82.46 on volume. It’s still 6.5% below that line, with nothing in between.
So today, if we sort them into three tiers by strength, SOL belongs in the worst one.
Only two look worth watching. TON is down 0.19% over 24 hours, the most resilient of the ten. Its RSI of 44.5 is the highest, its 30-day percentile of 18.7% is also the highest, and its MACD histogram is still positive at 0.0036. At 1.60, its price is above the 7-day moving average of 1.5814. But its 24-hour trading volume is only $400,000, so being the most resilient at this scale deserves a grain of salt.$AVAX Down 1.84% over 24 hours, half as much as BTC. Its MACD histogram of 0.0328 is the most convincing positive reading among the ten, and its 30-day percentile of 15.9% ranks second. The catch is that it fell 4.09% over the past 12 hours, the steepest drop of the ten. That implies it had risen 2.35% in the first half of the day, meaning the people who rushed in yesterday gave all those gains back today.
The awkward ones are the broader market and a few in the middle.$BTC BTC is at 68334, and its 24-hour low of 67568 is also its 30-day low. Today it effectively set a new 30-day bottom, closed below the lower Bollinger Band at 68971, and has an RSI of 24.6. ETH’s RSI is 24.4, and its price of 1930.68 is hugging the lower band at 1927. Its 24-hour low of 1895.95 is also a new 30-day low. BNB at 631.31 has also fallen below its lower band at 632.13. XRP is at 1.0081, with an RSI of 20.6 and a percentile of 2.6%, also hugging the bottom. These four haven’t fallen the hardest, but their positions look worse and worse. DOGE and LINK are also nearing their 30-day lows: DOGE missed breaking its low by 0.00001, while LINK has already broken through.
The one to really stay away from is ADA. It’s down 4.07% over 24 hours and 3.57% over the past 12 hours, with a 30-day percentile of 1.9%. Its 24-hour low of 0.166 is also its 30-day low. Trading volume is just $20 million, second-lowest, with only barely-traded TON below it. A 4% drop without a pickup in volume—this kind of coin can’t even get a rebound going.
One caveat on the figures: 09:41 corresponds to 01:41 UTC, so only 7% of the daily session has elapsed. There’s considerable error in extrapolating volume, so figures like 0.85x and 1.56x are only useful for gauging direction, not as precise values. At the start of today’s Asian session, there are really just two numbers to watch: whether BTC retests 67568, and whether SOL can hold 77.12.
The thing I can’t read clearly is volume. Nine of the ten are tracking below their average volume. That could mean sellers have already finished selling, or it could mean everyone is waiting for someone else to move first. These two scenarios look exactly the same on the chart. I can’t tell them apart, so I won’t pretend to guess.
77.12 has broken. Are you getting out or waiting for it to reclaim that level?
Your position is your own. At this level, a single volume bar can flip the direction, so don’t leave your stop-loss to someone else’s judgment.