PPI delivered the mild numbers the market wanted, but Bitcoin still couldn’t reclaim $70,000. October PPI rose 0.3% month over month, below the 0.4% forecast, and 6.5% year over year, below the 6.6% forecast. Yet the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.15% instead of falling, and a December rate hike is now fully priced in. The market got the numbers it wanted and still fell—that’s the signal worth paying attention to.
Bitcoin hit an intraday low of $67,568 on Friday, its lowest level since August, and closed at around $69,283. It’s currently trading near $68,346, down about 46% from its October 6 high of $126,000. Around $1.63 billion in positions were liquidated across the crypto market over 24 hours; $903 million was in Bitcoin, and 96% of those liquidations were long positions. The Fear & Greed Index fell to 19, in “extreme fear”—its lowest since July. Bitcoin also tested its 200-week moving average for the first time since August.
I think this sell-off isn’t about the data; there’s simply no money left in the market. Stablecoin supply shrank by $14.2 billion over 30 days, its fastest decline since June 2022. Anthropic is reportedly seeking to raise $64.4 billion, with demand exceeding the offering by six times, and is still pulling liquidity from the market. BlackRock’s IBIT saw more than $2 billion in outflows over nine trading days. “Buy the rumor, sell the news” isn’t the issue here—there’s just nobody stepping in to buy.
Invalidation levels: Bitcoin closes above $70,400 for two consecutive days and spot ETFs record net inflows of more than $100 million in a single day (demand is returning; this view is invalidated); or it closes below $65,000 for two consecutive days (fear has escalated into a trend breakdown, with $62,800 as the next level to watch).
Which side are you on: before the weekend close, will Bitcoin reclaim $70,000 first, or test $65,000 first?
$BTC
#USPPIMissMayEaseBTCPressure #WhatWillDriveCryptoandStocks'NextRebound?
Bitcoin hit an intraday low of $67,568 on Friday, its lowest level since August, and closed at around $69,283. It’s currently trading near $68,346, down about 46% from its October 6 high of $126,000. Around $1.63 billion in positions were liquidated across the crypto market over 24 hours; $903 million was in Bitcoin, and 96% of those liquidations were long positions. The Fear & Greed Index fell to 19, in “extreme fear”—its lowest since July. Bitcoin also tested its 200-week moving average for the first time since August.
I think this sell-off isn’t about the data; there’s simply no money left in the market. Stablecoin supply shrank by $14.2 billion over 30 days, its fastest decline since June 2022. Anthropic is reportedly seeking to raise $64.4 billion, with demand exceeding the offering by six times, and is still pulling liquidity from the market. BlackRock’s IBIT saw more than $2 billion in outflows over nine trading days. “Buy the rumor, sell the news” isn’t the issue here—there’s just nobody stepping in to buy.
Invalidation levels: Bitcoin closes above $70,400 for two consecutive days and spot ETFs record net inflows of more than $100 million in a single day (demand is returning; this view is invalidated); or it closes below $65,000 for two consecutive days (fear has escalated into a trend breakdown, with $62,800 as the next level to watch).
Which side are you on: before the weekend close, will Bitcoin reclaim $70,000 first, or test $65,000 first?
$BTC
#USPPIMissMayEaseBTCPressure #WhatWillDriveCryptoandStocks'NextRebound?
