The daily candle has closed: at 08:00 it closed at $68,314, holding above the 200-week moving average at $68,000—but with just $314 to spare. That’s not a firm hold; it’s barely hanging on. At 09:00, $BTC is around $68,220, down 4.0% over 24 hours; $ETH is around $1,930, also down 4.0% (actual figures from CoinGecko). Price is grinding right along this line, just $220 away from it.
Trade #2 update: The short opened today at 07:04 in the $68,000–$69,000 range, with a midpoint entry of $68,500. The current price is $68,220, down 0.41%; at 100x leverage, that’s an unrealized gain of about 41%—it was 23% when we opened, so the gain has grown over the past two hours. To be honest, this trade is in profit now, but that profit comes from the move since entry; it doesn’t count until we hit the target. The $70,500 stop-loss and the invalidation level—a 4-hour close above $70,214—haven’t been reached, so we’re holding.
Why I’m still bearish: The Fear & Greed Index is at 13 today, in extreme fear, down again from yesterday’s 20 (alternative.me). U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw another $284 million in net outflows on November 12, bringing year-to-date flows to about $1.56 billion in the red (per Farside/SoSoValue); money is still flowing out. Around $1.6 billion in positions were liquidated across the market in the past 24 hours, 90% of them longs. Below, a cluster of $112.5 million in long liquidation orders sits at $67,500 (alphafinance), just 1% from the current price. If $68,000 breaks, that cluster could be triggered in a cascade. BTC funding on Hyperliquid has already turned negative, at -0.0026% per 8 hours. Shorts are starting to pay, which means more traders are piling into shorts too. Be cautious here—don’t chase shorts below $68,000.
There’s one piece of good news: Coinbase received final approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) last night to establish a national trust company (reported by 01 Capital). Structurally, that’s positive, but it won’t solve the immediate problem and isn’t a reason to turn bullish.
The plan is unchanged: keep holding short trade #2, with the first target at $65,000 (take half off when it gets there) and the second target at $62,300–$62,800. Exit if a 4-hour candle closes above $70,214; only consider turning bullish if the daily candle closes back above the 200-day moving average at $73,125. Use only a very small portion of total capital for 100x leverage. The next hurdle is Monday’s 08:00 weekly close—whether the weekly candle can hold above $68,000 matters more than today’s daily candle.
Akedo is still up 330% in a day on the trending list, and ni hao cat has just reached a new high. They’re both small-cap coins, so treat them only as sentiment indicators; I’m staying away.
Do you think the 200-week moving average at $68,000 will hold through Monday? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: actual CoinGecko figures at 09:00 Beijing time on November 14; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
Trade #2 update: The short opened today at 07:04 in the $68,000–$69,000 range, with a midpoint entry of $68,500. The current price is $68,220, down 0.41%; at 100x leverage, that’s an unrealized gain of about 41%—it was 23% when we opened, so the gain has grown over the past two hours. To be honest, this trade is in profit now, but that profit comes from the move since entry; it doesn’t count until we hit the target. The $70,500 stop-loss and the invalidation level—a 4-hour close above $70,214—haven’t been reached, so we’re holding.
Why I’m still bearish: The Fear & Greed Index is at 13 today, in extreme fear, down again from yesterday’s 20 (alternative.me). U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw another $284 million in net outflows on November 12, bringing year-to-date flows to about $1.56 billion in the red (per Farside/SoSoValue); money is still flowing out. Around $1.6 billion in positions were liquidated across the market in the past 24 hours, 90% of them longs. Below, a cluster of $112.5 million in long liquidation orders sits at $67,500 (alphafinance), just 1% from the current price. If $68,000 breaks, that cluster could be triggered in a cascade. BTC funding on Hyperliquid has already turned negative, at -0.0026% per 8 hours. Shorts are starting to pay, which means more traders are piling into shorts too. Be cautious here—don’t chase shorts below $68,000.
There’s one piece of good news: Coinbase received final approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) last night to establish a national trust company (reported by 01 Capital). Structurally, that’s positive, but it won’t solve the immediate problem and isn’t a reason to turn bullish.
The plan is unchanged: keep holding short trade #2, with the first target at $65,000 (take half off when it gets there) and the second target at $62,300–$62,800. Exit if a 4-hour candle closes above $70,214; only consider turning bullish if the daily candle closes back above the 200-day moving average at $73,125. Use only a very small portion of total capital for 100x leverage. The next hurdle is Monday’s 08:00 weekly close—whether the weekly candle can hold above $68,000 matters more than today’s daily candle.
Akedo is still up 330% in a day on the trending list, and ni hao cat has just reached a new high. They’re both small-cap coins, so treat them only as sentiment indicators; I’m staying away.
Do you think the 200-week moving average at $68,000 will hold through Monday? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: actual CoinGecko figures at 09:00 Beijing time on November 14; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
