Bitcoin has fallen below its 200-week moving average, but there’s another signal worth watching more closely: funding rates have turned negative.
According to CoinDesk, $BTC fell below $70,000 yesterday, hitting a low of around $67,650—the first time since August—and also slipping below the 200-week moving average at around $68,000. CoinGlass data shows that about $1.64 billion in positions were liquidated across the crypto market in the past 24 hours, nearly 90% of them long positions.
The backdrop is macroeconomic: CME FedWatch shows the market pricing in an approximately 88% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. The U.S. Dollar Index has climbed above 103, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is above 5.1%. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.44 billion (Farside).
But here’s one thing to note: funding rates for BTC, $ETH , and SOL are broadly negative, meaning shorts are paying longs. When short positions get crowded, things often go one of two ways: either prices keep grinding lower until longs are wiped out, or there’s a sharp short squeeze.
BTC is down more than 21% this year. If it doesn’t recover to $87,500 before year-end, it will mark the first time in history that it has closed down for two consecutive years.
What do you think: will the 200-week moving average hold this time, or will it be decisively broken?
#比特币 #FedRateHike
According to CoinDesk, $BTC fell below $70,000 yesterday, hitting a low of around $67,650—the first time since August—and also slipping below the 200-week moving average at around $68,000. CoinGlass data shows that about $1.64 billion in positions were liquidated across the crypto market in the past 24 hours, nearly 90% of them long positions.
The backdrop is macroeconomic: CME FedWatch shows the market pricing in an approximately 88% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. The U.S. Dollar Index has climbed above 103, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is above 5.1%. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.44 billion (Farside).
But here’s one thing to note: funding rates for BTC, $ETH , and SOL are broadly negative, meaning shorts are paying longs. When short positions get crowded, things often go one of two ways: either prices keep grinding lower until longs are wiped out, or there’s a sharp short squeeze.
BTC is down more than 21% this year. If it doesn’t recover to $87,500 before year-end, it will mark the first time in history that it has closed down for two consecutive years.
What do you think: will the 200-week moving average hold this time, or will it be decisively broken?
#比特币 #FedRateHike