Bitcoin mining difficulty is set to drop by about 8.8% this morning. Don’t read it as bullish—this is a receipt for hashrate retreat, not a lifeline for miners.
Difficulty is falling from 148.36T to around 135.3T, the biggest downward adjustment since June. It’s expected to take effect around noon today (mempool.space live data, 08:50 Beijing time, 17 blocks remaining).
The average block time this round has been about 11 minutes, well above the 10-minute target—the hashrate left first, and difficulty is only now being forced to catch up.
After the adjustment, miners’ daily revenue per unit of hashrate (hashprice) will recover by only about 10%—nowhere near enough to make up even a fraction of Bitcoin’s price drop: $BTC fell from a peak of $126,000 to $68,400, down about 46%.
Older mining rigs still can’t make it: estimates put the post-adjustment electricity-cost ceiling for an S19 at only about 4 cents, so it will still lose money on electricity at 5 cents per kWh. Only newer rigs like the S21, with a ceiling of 8.12 cents, can stay profitable.
Miner reserves are around 1.19 million BTC, the lowest since 2009—miners are selling, not accumulating.
My take: the difficulty drop helps the rigs still online; it can’t save those that have already shut down. The real signal isn’t the difficulty number itself, but whether hashrate comes back after the adjustment takes effect. If it does, that suggests miners only shut down temporarily to weather the storm; if it keeps falling, this round of miner capitulation isn’t over.
As for price, $BTC 6.84万 is right around the 200-week moving average at $68,000. Miner selling pressure, combined with $1.56 billion in net ETF outflows year to date, means one difficulty adjustment won’t change the picture.
Watch three variables next: whether network hashrate rebounds after the adjustment takes effect around noon today, whether miner reserves stop falling, and whether the weekly close on Sunday can get back above the 200-week moving average at $68,000.
Do you think miners shutting down this time is temporary, or a trend? After older rigs leave the market, who will control the hashrate?
$BTC
#比特币 #挖矿 #矿工 #DifficultyAdjustment
This is only a compilation of market information and does not constitute investment advice.
Difficulty is falling from 148.36T to around 135.3T, the biggest downward adjustment since June. It’s expected to take effect around noon today (mempool.space live data, 08:50 Beijing time, 17 blocks remaining).
The average block time this round has been about 11 minutes, well above the 10-minute target—the hashrate left first, and difficulty is only now being forced to catch up.
After the adjustment, miners’ daily revenue per unit of hashrate (hashprice) will recover by only about 10%—nowhere near enough to make up even a fraction of Bitcoin’s price drop: $BTC fell from a peak of $126,000 to $68,400, down about 46%.
Older mining rigs still can’t make it: estimates put the post-adjustment electricity-cost ceiling for an S19 at only about 4 cents, so it will still lose money on electricity at 5 cents per kWh. Only newer rigs like the S21, with a ceiling of 8.12 cents, can stay profitable.
Miner reserves are around 1.19 million BTC, the lowest since 2009—miners are selling, not accumulating.
My take: the difficulty drop helps the rigs still online; it can’t save those that have already shut down. The real signal isn’t the difficulty number itself, but whether hashrate comes back after the adjustment takes effect. If it does, that suggests miners only shut down temporarily to weather the storm; if it keeps falling, this round of miner capitulation isn’t over.
As for price, $BTC 6.84万 is right around the 200-week moving average at $68,000. Miner selling pressure, combined with $1.56 billion in net ETF outflows year to date, means one difficulty adjustment won’t change the picture.
Watch three variables next: whether network hashrate rebounds after the adjustment takes effect around noon today, whether miner reserves stop falling, and whether the weekly close on Sunday can get back above the 200-week moving average at $68,000.
Do you think miners shutting down this time is temporary, or a trend? After older rigs leave the market, who will control the hashrate?
$BTC
#比特币 #挖矿 #矿工 #DifficultyAdjustment
This is only a compilation of market information and does not constitute investment advice.