Key Takeaway
BTC was at 68,318 this morning, down 4.17% over 24 hours, with a low of 67,568—the lowest since this decline began. The price is 45.8% below the October 2025 high of 126,080. The Fear & Greed Index is at 13, indicating extreme fear; this is the first time in this cycle it has fallen below 20. The daily candle for November 13 was a high-volume long bearish candle, with 2.05 billion in trading volume, the highest in the 30-day window. The close was 649 points below the daily Bollinger lower band at 68,967, leaving the price in just the bottom 5.2% of its 20-day range.
Yesterday, none of the four capitulation signals had appeared. Today, two and a half have. A Fear & Greed reading of 13 counts as one, a high-volume long bearish candle counts as one, and OI falling from a peak of 102,149 contracts to 98,389 (-3.7%) counts as half. The funding rate is still positive at 0.0058%, so that doesn't count. Capitulation has begun, but it isn't over. The part that's still unfinished is exactly the most dangerous: shorts haven't paid a premium once throughout the entire decline, and the retail long ratio has hit a new high for this cycle at 76.38%. With no U.S. stocks to provide direction over the weekend, extreme readings near the lows and uncleared leverage will face off for another day.
Yesterday's Scenario Review
Yesterday's bearish scenario, assigned a 40% probability, played out. The invalidation line was set at two consecutive 4H closes above 73,341; yesterday's high was 71,514, never even close. After breaking below the previous low of 71,113, price fell steadily, dropping 3,946 points in a single day—1.74 times the daily ATR (2,262).
Macro Logic Chain
This chain grew stronger again yesterday. HSBC cut its Nvidia price target from 365 to 170, a 53% reduction, and downgraded its rating to Hold. Nvidia's board approached Arm CEO to discuss replacing Jensen Huang, raising the probability of succession to 36%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell as much as 5%, while AMD dropped 8%. The AI sector's valuation reset is accelerating, and BTC is following as a shadow asset of the AI trade.
On interest rates, Fed's Collins said rates may have to rise more than expected. On liquidity, Anthropic's IPO was cited as one factor squeezing crypto liquidity, and it was confirmed that the offering would not be open to investors in mainland China or Hong Kong. In spot markets, the Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for 51 consecutive days. U.S. buying has been absent for longer than this downturn itself.
Analysts have given the next reference level: a break below 69,000 would put 65,000 in view. 69,000 was already breached this morning, turning 65,000 from speculation into a stated target.
Weekly and Daily Structure
The fifth consecutive weekly red candle is in progress. This week, price has fallen 8.73% from the 74,851 open, making it the largest of the five. The previous four weeks were down 1.98%, 2.39%, 2.25%, and 4.47%, respectively—a larger decline each week, with this week's loss doubling the previous one. The range is 8,031 points, compared with 6,308 points last week. A new range high alongside five consecutive red candles shows volatility expanding, not contracting.
Three daily-chart extremes. RSI is 24.5. Price is 6,997 points below the EMA20 (75,315) and 7,584 points below the EMA200 (75,902), with all moving averages lined up overhead as a ceiling. Bollinger Band width has expanded to 18.79%. A close outside the lower band is an extreme reading in a trending market; historically, it has appeared more often during acceleration phases, while turning points are less common. The MACD histogram closed at -484.4 on November 12 and -719.6 on November 13. Daily downside momentum is still accelerating.
Divergence is beginning to appear on the 4H chart. The MACD histogram has narrowed for three consecutive bars, from -375.3 to -359.2 to -318.0, while RSI at 22.4 is near the oversold zone. The 1H histogram has already turned positive (+59.0), and price is between the 1H lower Bollinger Band at 68,063 and the middle band at 68,842. A preliminary rebound structure is taking shape. Short-term recovery alongside long-term acceleration is a typical combination during a continuation of a downtrend—unless the rebound can bring the daily close back above the lower band.
This Long Red Candle
The November 13 candle opened at 71,460, reached a high of 71,514, a low of 67,568, and closed at 68,314. Its body was 3,146 points, with a lower wick of just 746 points. The close was at 18.9% of the day's range. Volume was 2.05 billion, exceeding 2.025 billion on November 6 and 1.747 billion on November 4, making it the highest-volume candle since this decline began. The three highest-volume candles in this downturn were November 4 at 1.747 billion, November 5 at 2.025 billion, and November 13 at 2.05 billion. The day after the first, price continued falling by 5.49%; after the second, it held roughly steady, down just 0.32%. Volume alone does not indicate direction. Where price goes after a volume spike is determined by funding rates and positioning—and that's exactly why today's near-zero funding rate is so troubling.
A long red candle on high volume, but the close did not pin the low: two interpretations remain possible. The bearish interpretation is that buyers only managed a 746-point lower wick, not enough to support a reversal. The bullish interpretation is that buyers finally stepped in despite the heavy volume. The difference will be whether a rebound with volume and price confirmation appears over the next two days. For today, watch whether price can reclaim and hold the 69,000–69,124 band (1H EMA20 plus the 24-hour weighted average price) on increased volume.
Derivatives Scorecard
Fear & Greed has reached 13, the first reading below 20 this cycle. The long red candle on high volume has arrived too, with 2.05 billion marking the largest volume in the window. OI gets half credit: it fell from a peak of 102,149 contracts on the morning of November 13 to 98,389 this morning, a 3.7% drop. That's a meaningful decline, but not a flush-out (defined previously as more than 5% in a single day). Funding rates have not met the mark: at 0.0058%, they remain positive, just barely above zero. Shorts have not paid a premium once during the entire decline. The next settlement is at 4 p.m. Today's weekend settlement will show whether funding rates turn negative for the first time.
$1.3 billion liquidated, 150,000 people affected.
The breakdown of open interest deserves a closer look. Contract count fell 3.7%, while OI notional value dropped 8.3%, from a peak of $7.32 billion to $6.72 billion. The difference between the two figures is attributable to price: relatively few positions actually exited, and most of the decline came from the coin's price itself. There has been no large-scale change of hands.
The most stubborn point is still that old paradox. The share of accounts holding longs rose for three consecutive readings—75.31%, 75.73%, and 76.38%—hitting a new cycle high this morning. Price breaks down while retail traders double down on longs. This has happened repeatedly since October 30, and every time the result has been further declines. With 76.38% of accounts positioned long and funding rates still positive, retail traders are catching falling knives with real money while large players can hold shorts without paying interest. Downside liquidation fuel has not decreased; it has increased.
One counterpoint: Hyperliquid's open interest hit a record $16.8 billion at the end of Q3, surpassing Bybit, Kraken, and OKX. Prices are collapsing, but the betting table is growing; overall leveraged positioning has not pulled back.
The Two Most Painful Groups
Those who bought in the past 24 hours at the weighted average price of 69,124 are now 806 points underwater at the current price; the entire group is sitting on unrealized losses. Those who bought into the rebound on November 4, which closed at 80,504, are down 15.1%. Just 72 hours ago, price was still above 74,000. In one week, every long opened above 73,000 has gone deep underwater.
Key Price Levels
Above, 68,967 is the daily lower Bollinger Band. A close back above it is the first step toward recovery. The 1H EMA20 at 69,087 and the 24-hour weighted average price at 69,124 are packed within 40 points of each other, forming the first test for a rebound. Above that, 70,214 (1H 20-hour high), 70,489 (1H EMA50), and 71,126 (4H EMA20) are layered one after another. The area from 71,421 to 71,514 is where the decline began yesterday.
Below, 67,568 is both yesterday's low and the 20-day low, while 67,094 is the 4H lower Bollinger Band. Just 474 points apart, they form the first support shelf. Below that is the round number 67,000, followed by the 65,000 level cited by analysts.
Scenario Analysis
On November 10, I listed three figures that needed to turn around. Today, let's check them one by one. ETFs have not turned positive; the latest data, through November 10, still show outflows of 95 million. OI notional value has not increased, shrinking from 7.32 billion to 6.72 billion. Funding rates have not risen above 0.03%; this morning's reading was 0.0058%, and it did not even hold for one settlement period. None of the three figures has met the test, so for now every rebound here can only be treated as a technical recovery.
Scenario 1 (40%): A low-level rebound runs out of steam at the 69,000–70,200 resistance band. The market grinds out a bottom over the weekend, the center of gravity continues to move lower, and 67,568 is tested again. Trigger conditions: the rebound comes on declining volume, funding rates stay near zero, and the long/short ratio does not turn down.
Scenario 2 (30%): The decline continues directly, with a weekend wick breaking below 67,568 and a move down toward the 67,000–65,000 area. Trigger conditions: a 4H close below 67,568 with OI rising rather than falling, or another negative development along the AI theme before Monday's market open.
Scenario 3 (30%): Extreme readings give way to a short squeeze rebound. Price reclaims and holds above 69,000 on increased volume, with a rebound target of 70,500–71,100. Trigger conditions: funding rates turn negative (shorts start paying) and OI is flushed out by more than 5%. Only when both figures appear can we say that shorts are truly retreating.
The same two figures—funding rates and OI—are the tools for assessing all three paths. Negative funding rates plus an OI flush signal capitulation. If either is missing, treat any rebound as an exit door.
Trading Approach
Intraday. For those holding longs, the 69,000–69,124 test zone is where to assess a rebound. There is only one condition for not reducing the position: volume must expand and the 4H candle must close above 68,967. Otherwise, treat it as an exit door. For those holding shorts, the invalidation reference is two consecutive 4H closes above 71,126.
Swing trading. There is no entry to offer to sidelined traders right now. Funding rates have not turned negative, OI has not been flushed out, and the retail long ratio has hit a new high—all three conditions point to downside fuel still being present. The entry triggers are clear: funding rates turn negative and OI is flushed out by more than 5% in a single day, or the daily close reclaims the lower Bollinger Band and price holds above it the next day. Wait for either one before considering a contrarian entry. Focus on the support-density zone around 65,000–67,000, without prespecifying an exact level.
Risk Warnings
1. Weekend liquidity is thin, so the risk of sharp wicks is higher than on weekdays. The flash crash of 2.77% in the 15 minutes before the November 9 weekly close is still fresh in memory. 2. Extreme fear readings like Fear & Greed 13 have historically meant that, during one-way declines, things can get even more extreme. Every cheap reading since October 30 has been followed by lower prices. 3. The retail long ratio has hit a new high of 76.38%, while funding rates hover near zero. Downside liquidation fuel has not diminished, and any rebound could be treated by shorts as an opportunity to add positions. 4. The AI macro chain has yet to show signs of closing. HSBC's 170 target price will continue to be priced in when U.S. stocks open on Monday; whether BTC follows is the first figure to check tomorrow morning. 5. ETF data through November 10 show net outflows of 95 million, with a four-day lag. The hypothesis that ETFs are the main cause remains open and unverified.