Bitcoin has never had two consecutive down years in its 18-year history. This year, that record may be broken.
$BTC is currently around $68,254 (Nov. 13, 23:00 UTC), down 4.43% on the day, with an intraday low of $67,568. It’s down more than 20% year to date, and 2025 is already down 6.34%.
First, a few figures:
1. Back into the green: Bitcoin opened 2026 at around $87,500. To get back above that level by Dec. 31, it would need to rise about 28% in the less than seven weeks remaining.
2. The historical record: Bitcoin has never had two consecutive down years. It fell 73.56% in 2018, then rose about 92% in 2019; it fell 64.27% in 2022, then rose about 155% in 2023. After every major decline, it has rebounded the following year.
3. But this time is different: Bitcoin is down about 27% cumulatively over the past two years, still far less than its losses in 2018 or 2022 alone. From its October 2025 peak of around $126,000, the maximum drawdown exceeded 50%, and in June this year it briefly fell below $59,000.
4. The weekly trend is also down: This week looks set to be the sixth consecutive week to close lower.
My take: The record itself is no safety net. Whether the year-end candle closes in the green depends on December. There are two scenarios to consider. If ETF outflows stabilize and expectations of a December rate hike cool, a move back above $87,500 is still possible, and a technical rebound before year-end wouldn’t be surprising. If outflows continue and the price loses the $67,500 area again, the first-ever “two consecutive down years” record will be all but confirmed. But to be clear, the combined decline over the two years is about 27%—nowhere near the scale of the brutal bear markets of 2018 and 2022. Using “Bitcoin has never had two down years in a row” as a reason to buy the dip is just as shaky as using “this time is different” as a reason to be bearish. Just watch two numbers: $87,500 and $67,500. Whichever comes first will point to the answer.
Data as of: 2026-11-13 23:00 UTC
For informational purposes only; this is not investment advice.
$BTC is currently around $68,254 (Nov. 13, 23:00 UTC), down 4.43% on the day, with an intraday low of $67,568. It’s down more than 20% year to date, and 2025 is already down 6.34%.
First, a few figures:
1. Back into the green: Bitcoin opened 2026 at around $87,500. To get back above that level by Dec. 31, it would need to rise about 28% in the less than seven weeks remaining.
2. The historical record: Bitcoin has never had two consecutive down years. It fell 73.56% in 2018, then rose about 92% in 2019; it fell 64.27% in 2022, then rose about 155% in 2023. After every major decline, it has rebounded the following year.
3. But this time is different: Bitcoin is down about 27% cumulatively over the past two years, still far less than its losses in 2018 or 2022 alone. From its October 2025 peak of around $126,000, the maximum drawdown exceeded 50%, and in June this year it briefly fell below $59,000.
4. The weekly trend is also down: This week looks set to be the sixth consecutive week to close lower.
My take: The record itself is no safety net. Whether the year-end candle closes in the green depends on December. There are two scenarios to consider. If ETF outflows stabilize and expectations of a December rate hike cool, a move back above $87,500 is still possible, and a technical rebound before year-end wouldn’t be surprising. If outflows continue and the price loses the $67,500 area again, the first-ever “two consecutive down years” record will be all but confirmed. But to be clear, the combined decline over the two years is about 27%—nowhere near the scale of the brutal bear markets of 2018 and 2022. Using “Bitcoin has never had two down years in a row” as a reason to buy the dip is just as shaky as using “this time is different” as a reason to be bearish. Just watch two numbers: $87,500 and $67,500. Whichever comes first will point to the answer.
Data as of: 2026-11-13 23:00 UTC
For informational purposes only; this is not investment advice.
