Six consecutive down weeks are all but confirmed, but the number of consecutive down weeks has never been a directional signal.
In the first quarter of this year, $BTC also fell for six straight weeks, dropping from $93,630 to $65,769, then rose 14.5% over the following 12 weeks. In 2022, it fell for nine consecutive weeks, then dropped another 23.5% over the next four weeks. The same losing streak has led to completely opposite outcomes.
The current price is around $68,413 (Binance, snapshot taken at 06:48 Beijing time on November 14). It is down about 8.6% week to date (last Sunday’s weekly close was around $74,834); November is down 11%, the fourth quarter is down 17%, and the year to date is down about 22%. Unless prices surge nearly 10% over the weekend, the sixth consecutive weekly loss is all but confirmed.
The weekly MACD histogram fell below the zero line this week, but the signal won’t be confirmed until Sunday’s close.
On November 13, spot ETFs saw another outflow of about $309 million (4,423 BTC), bringing total outflows for the first eight trading days of November to $1.88 billion.
The S&P 500 still rose about 2.15% for the week, while the 10-year yield was 5.15%—stocks up, crypto down. The weakness isn’t macro-driven; crypto has simply run out of buyers.
My take: a losing streak only tells us that momentum has run out; it doesn’t tell us where the bottom is. What will determine the direction is whether Sunday’s weekly close can reclaim the 200-week moving average, around $68,000—the current price is right on that line.
There’s another parallel story making the rounds: before SpaceX’s June IPO, BTC fell from $75,000 to $60,000, then rebounded to $68,000 after the listing. With Anthropic’s IPO coming next week (November 19), some people are drawing the same comparison. But the real reason for June’s rebound was liquidity returning after the event—not “IPOs are good for crypto.” Reversing cause and effect leads to the wrong conclusion.
Three things to watch next: whether Sunday’s close holds above $68,000, whether ETF flows stop bleeding, and whether capital returns or keeps flowing out around Anthropic’s IPO.
Do you think this six-week losing streak is more like the middle of the 2022 bear market, or the false dip in the first quarter of this year?
#比特币 #BTC #FederalReserve
The above is only a summary of market information and does not constitute investment advice.
In the first quarter of this year, $BTC also fell for six straight weeks, dropping from $93,630 to $65,769, then rose 14.5% over the following 12 weeks. In 2022, it fell for nine consecutive weeks, then dropped another 23.5% over the next four weeks. The same losing streak has led to completely opposite outcomes.
The current price is around $68,413 (Binance, snapshot taken at 06:48 Beijing time on November 14). It is down about 8.6% week to date (last Sunday’s weekly close was around $74,834); November is down 11%, the fourth quarter is down 17%, and the year to date is down about 22%. Unless prices surge nearly 10% over the weekend, the sixth consecutive weekly loss is all but confirmed.
The weekly MACD histogram fell below the zero line this week, but the signal won’t be confirmed until Sunday’s close.
On November 13, spot ETFs saw another outflow of about $309 million (4,423 BTC), bringing total outflows for the first eight trading days of November to $1.88 billion.
The S&P 500 still rose about 2.15% for the week, while the 10-year yield was 5.15%—stocks up, crypto down. The weakness isn’t macro-driven; crypto has simply run out of buyers.
My take: a losing streak only tells us that momentum has run out; it doesn’t tell us where the bottom is. What will determine the direction is whether Sunday’s weekly close can reclaim the 200-week moving average, around $68,000—the current price is right on that line.
There’s another parallel story making the rounds: before SpaceX’s June IPO, BTC fell from $75,000 to $60,000, then rebounded to $68,000 after the listing. With Anthropic’s IPO coming next week (November 19), some people are drawing the same comparison. But the real reason for June’s rebound was liquidity returning after the event—not “IPOs are good for crypto.” Reversing cause and effect leads to the wrong conclusion.
Three things to watch next: whether Sunday’s close holds above $68,000, whether ETF flows stop bleeding, and whether capital returns or keeps flowing out around Anthropic’s IPO.
Do you think this six-week losing streak is more like the middle of the 2022 bear market, or the false dip in the first quarter of this year?
#比特币 #BTC #FederalReserve
The above is only a summary of market information and does not constitute investment advice.