Today is November 14, 2026. After six consecutive weeks of declines, Bitcoin has finally reached the weekly MA200. Everyone says the four-year cycle is broken, and it’s true that applying the old cycle playbook to this one hasn’t worked very well. Historically, once Bitcoin entered a deep bear market, the first time it broke above the 50-week MA, it never fell back below it: it would retest the line, find support, and continue rising. This time, though, it not only broke below the 50-week MA but also cleanly broke below the 200-day MA, suddenly entering a vacuum with no support. It only stopped falling after the weekly MA200 was taken out and Jason, the well-known Chinese crypto bull, had his massive 1-billion long position blown up. I was deeply confused too, but after waking up, I feel like I’ve got a clearer picture, so here are my thoughts. The surge on heavy volume in August happened for a few reasons. First, oil prices fell after the U.S.-Iran conflict ended in the first half of the year. That was compounded by the rally sparked by the positive news on September 2, as well as the fact that so many people expected Bitcoin to fall to the point 365 days after the previous bull-market peak, just like in past four-year cycles. As a result, too many short positions had built up around the weekly MA200, and they were all squeezed at once, leading to the high-volume breakout in August. Bitcoin then peaked after the positive news on September 2 at the end of the month. Once the good news was priced in, there was nothing left to drive the market higher. The U.S.-Iran conflict flared up again, oil prices rose and pushed inflation higher, and that was compounded by risks in long-term U.S. bonds, uncertainty from partisan conflict ahead of the midterms, expectations of an AI bubble bursting, Binance getting hacked for $6 billion, and negative headlines about Jensen Huang’s personal life. Who knows what we’ve been through over these past six weeks. In the last ten years, Bitcoin has never broken below the 50-week MA during a bear-market bottoming period and then fallen further—except briefly during the black-swan COVID crash in March 2020. I’ve carefully counted up the negative catalysts and black swans packed into these six weeks, and given all that, it’s no surprise that an unlikely event like breaking below the 50-week MA happened. I cleared my head and thought it over again. Encountering this many negative catalysts and black swans in just over a month has only happened twice in the past ten years. The last time I saw anything like it was March 2020. Now it’s happening again, and all I can do is grit my teeth and accept it. Let’s seriously discuss how I think Bitcoin may move from here. Bitcoin’s daily RSI and KDJ are now both extremely oversold, so there’s a need for a short-term rebound. The market is gripped by extreme fear—in the literal sense. Killa and Dr, two of the best-known bulls in the English-speaking crypto community, have both said they really can’t make sense of the price action. I understand how they feel. The more faith you have in Bitcoin, the more likely you are to use the usual bull-and-bear-cycle indicators to buy the dip all the way down. That’s exactly what I’ve been doing. On the other hand, people who hate Bitcoin and believe crypto will eventually go to zero have probably been shorting again and again throughout this decline, finding it smoother the further the market falls. They never believed in the bull-and-bear cycle in the first place, and they certainly don’t care where supposed bull-market support might hold. They just short every rally, like playing whack-a-mole. Having considered the other side’s logic, here’s what I think. The APEC meeting is in Shenzhen on the 18th next week, and the leaders of three countries will attend. That’s one of the few positive developments in the near term. On top of that, Bitcoin is due for a short-term technical rebound, so it should bounce on Monday or Tuesday next week. Personally, I think it could reach 71,400–73,000. Even as one of the biggest bulls around, I wouldn’t dare expect a V-shaped reversal all the way to 75,000—unless some genuinely significant positive news comes out next week, such as Trump posting that an agreement was reached at APEC. The main reason is that, among cases where the price has broken back below the 50-week MA, the only comparable example to this one is the COVID crash on March 12, 2020. That V-shaped reversal happened because the Fed stepped in urgently to rescue the market. Likewise, after Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in 2023, the market only made a V-shaped recovery because the Fed intervened. So, in my view, the odds of the market going straight back up in a V are low. After a rebound to 71,400–73,000, the APEC meeting will be over and the positive news will be priced in, so a pullback toward the weekly MA200, around 67,000–69,000, would make sense. If you’re carrying a lot of leverage and can’t take the pressure, I strongly recommend reducing your position after a rebound next Monday. Since the Democrats are being unreasonable and going after Jensen Huang so aggressively, I wouldn’t be surprised if they next target other business leaders with ties to the Republicans. After the midterms, Trump even said he would use presidential immunity to protect Musk, which suggests he expects the Democrats to carry out political purges. If you don’t reduce your position or your leverage, it wouldn’t be surprising if some dirt came out about AMD’s Lisa Su or some other Republican figure. You need to survive the chaos, at the very least. I’ve always been bullish on a rally before Christmas in December, but if some story comes out in December about Putin having leverage over Trump, or about Musk and some personal-conduct scandal involving abortion, then we’ll get hit again. On top of that, there’s usually a pullback around Christmas. Americans sell Bitcoin and stocks to get cash for the holidays, much like we buy things before Lunar New Year so we can enjoy the holiday. The market often starts rising again after Christmas. In 2018 and 2022, there were declines of varying degrees in November and December after the midterms, but in January 2019 and January 2023, the market started rising. Once the Democrats formally took over Congress, the negative news was behind us, political uncertainty faded, and U.S. stocks and Bitcoin began to rise. So here’s my plan. If you’re already underwater and Bitcoin rebounds next Monday or Tuesday, reduce your position and lower your leverage if the rebound starts to lose steam. As long as the weekly MA200 holds, it’s a potential bottom, and there’s no need to close your position. But if it breaks below and doesn’t quickly recover, holding on could leave you unable to sleep. You may be better off waiting until after Christmas and entering on the right-hand side in January 2027, even if the price is higher than it is now. Of course, I think 67,500 probably isn’t the absolute bottom, but it should be close. The whales on Hyperliquid who have been holding short positions since the huge August pump have been underwater for more than three months. They finally closed those positions for a profit during this decline, and are now starting to go long. Their liquidation prices are probably only around 30,000–40,000, so they’re not going to get liquidated. That does suggest we’ve reached a bottom, though it’s hard to say whether 67,500 is the ultimate low. People say this is the darkness before dawn. But the darkness before dawn is the scariest part, because you have no way of knowing how long it will be until the sun comes up.