BTC may set a record not seen in 18 years: two consecutive years of losses. But don’t let the headline scare you—the combined loss over the two years is only about 26%, much milder than the roughly 50% drops in 2018 and 2022. What’s really being rewritten is the “four-year cycle” narrative.
BTC closed down 6.34% in 2025, and is down more than 20% so far in 2026, with its current price around $68,954.
Based on a 2025 closing price of about $87,500, the combined loss over the two years is around 26%. BTC fell 73.56% in 2018 and 64.27% in 2022, then rebounded 92% and 155%, respectively, the following year.
But don’t look only at the annual chart: from a high of about $126,000 in October 2025 to a drop below $58,000 in June 2026, the drawdown from the peak exceeded 50%. This downturn has been anything but mild.
2025 was also the first down year after a halving—the “four-year cycle” narrative first broke on this point.
On Friday, BTC briefly fell below its 200-week moving average (to a low of $67,568), then recovered to above $68,954. On November 12, spot ETFs saw another $284 million in outflows, including $204 million from IBIT, marking six consecutive days of outflows.
My take is that whether the annual candle is red or not is essentially a game of “time windows.” If you divide things by calendar years, a 26% loss over two years can count as two consecutive years of declines; if you measure from the peak, this downturn has already been cut in half. Headline writers will use the former to scare people, while bears will cite the latter. The two measures should be considered separately.
The key point is that the verdict isn’t in today: the annual candle is based on the December 31 closing price, and BTC would need to climb back to $87,500 to turn it green—about 27% from its current price. On November 10, when BTC was at $74,000, it needed to rise only about 18% to get back there. Historically, a year-end rally of this kind happens roughly once every eight years; now the challenge is even greater.
Keep an eye on three things next: whether BTC can hold above the 200-week moving average (around $68,000) at Sunday’s weekly close; the Federal Reserve meeting on December 8–9, with a 25-basis-point cut fully priced in and a 50-basis-point cut assigned about a 10% probability; and when ETF flows will stop bleeding.
If 2026 really does close with a second consecutive down year, do you think that means “the four-year cycle is dead,” or that “this downturn has just been slower, and hasn’t fully played out yet”?
$BTC
#比特币 #美联储 #Cryptocurrency
The above is for market information only and does not constitute investment advice.
BTC closed down 6.34% in 2025, and is down more than 20% so far in 2026, with its current price around $68,954.
Based on a 2025 closing price of about $87,500, the combined loss over the two years is around 26%. BTC fell 73.56% in 2018 and 64.27% in 2022, then rebounded 92% and 155%, respectively, the following year.
But don’t look only at the annual chart: from a high of about $126,000 in October 2025 to a drop below $58,000 in June 2026, the drawdown from the peak exceeded 50%. This downturn has been anything but mild.
2025 was also the first down year after a halving—the “four-year cycle” narrative first broke on this point.
On Friday, BTC briefly fell below its 200-week moving average (to a low of $67,568), then recovered to above $68,954. On November 12, spot ETFs saw another $284 million in outflows, including $204 million from IBIT, marking six consecutive days of outflows.
My take is that whether the annual candle is red or not is essentially a game of “time windows.” If you divide things by calendar years, a 26% loss over two years can count as two consecutive years of declines; if you measure from the peak, this downturn has already been cut in half. Headline writers will use the former to scare people, while bears will cite the latter. The two measures should be considered separately.
The key point is that the verdict isn’t in today: the annual candle is based on the December 31 closing price, and BTC would need to climb back to $87,500 to turn it green—about 27% from its current price. On November 10, when BTC was at $74,000, it needed to rise only about 18% to get back there. Historically, a year-end rally of this kind happens roughly once every eight years; now the challenge is even greater.
Keep an eye on three things next: whether BTC can hold above the 200-week moving average (around $68,000) at Sunday’s weekly close; the Federal Reserve meeting on December 8–9, with a 25-basis-point cut fully priced in and a 50-basis-point cut assigned about a 10% probability; and when ETF flows will stop bleeding.
If 2026 really does close with a second consecutive down year, do you think that means “the four-year cycle is dead,” or that “this downturn has just been slower, and hasn’t fully played out yet”?
$BTC
#比特币 #美联储 #Cryptocurrency
The above is for market information only and does not constitute investment advice.