At 2 a.m., checking the leaderboard: BARD, which was still in second place at midnight, has fallen to sixth. JCT bounced back overnight, and BTW has taken third among the decliners. AKE, meanwhile, is still going strong.
Leaderboard | Binance U-margined perpetuals, 24h percentage change (as of around 02:07 Beijing time; crypto assets only, trading volume ≥5 million U)
Top three gainers:
$AKE around +330%, current price ~0.0114. The midnight post had it around +279%, at 0.0111; its daily high was still 0.01185 then, and I wrote that I wouldn’t chase a second wave. But this midnight hourly candle saw around 189 million U in volume: it first plunged to 0.008235 at 00:10, then set a new daily high of 0.013331 at 00:40. This 1 a.m. candle also touched 0.01325
$SHELL around +63%, current price ~0.0315. It was still hovering around 0.020 at 22:00, with almost no volume. It only started moving at 23:00; this 1 a.m. candle traded around 18.35 million U, and it hit a daily high of 0.0326 at 01:55. It wasn’t in the top three at midnight
SOPH around +43%, current price ~0.00183. It set a new daily high of 0.002159 at 00:35 (the midnight post still had it at 0.001945 at 22:10), then fell to 0.001783 at 01:50. BARD has dropped to sixth, around +17%, current price ~0.144
Top three decliners:
$BULLA around -35%, current price ~0.0373. At midnight it was still at 0.0404, around -30%. It first bounced to 0.04605, then the 01:55 five-minute candle plunged from 0.04433 to 0.03666, just shy of the 0.03633 daily low from 21:59
AGT around -29%, current price ~0.0500. It touched 0.0557 at 00:10, then fell to 0.04846 at 01:45; the 0.0461 daily low from noon still stands
BTW around -15%, current price ~0.810. It has taken over from JCT in third place among the decliners. At midnight it was still around 0.865; it fell to 0.7944 at 01:55. The estimated funding rate for 04:00 is around -0.34%, a discount of about 1.1% to spot. At midnight JCT was still around -31%, at 0.00203; this 1 a.m. candle reached a high of 0.002549, and it’s now around 0.00219, off the decliners list
The broader market right now: BTC around 68820, about -4.3% over 24h. The 68073 low from 23:40 still holds; it bottomed at 68355 at 00:15 and rebounded to 69110 at 01:40. It hasn’t returned to 70188. Ether around 1937, BNB around 634
Smart money signals I noticed (Binance Smart Money, large-holder long/short ratio, OI, funding rates; around 02:07. Average price page timestamped around 18:25; unrealized P&L is not real-time):
· AKE: Contract units have fallen from around 4.14 billion at midnight to around 3.87 billion; USD OI is around 44.3 million. At 01:55, around 33% of accounts were long, more bearish than the 37% at 23:00; around 51% of positions were long. The 00:00 funding rate settled at +0.098%; the 04:00 estimate is around +0.11%
· SHELL: Contract units rose from around 77.7 million at 23:00 to around 167 million; USD OI is only around 5.27 million, and the order book is thin. At 01:55, around 54% of accounts were long, and around 57% of positions were long
· BULLA: Around 123 million contract units. At 01:55, around 59% of accounts were long, and around 64% of positions were long
· JCT: The price has bounced back, but at 02:00 around 76% of accounts were still long, and around 56% of positions were long
Whale P&L snapshot (based on average prices publicly shown by Binance Smart Money; page timestamped around 18:25, unverified):
· AKE: 69 long whales, average price around 0.00501, with 43 in profit at the time; 94 short whales, with position size around 2.9 times that of longs, average price around 0.00400, with 39 in profit at the time
· SHELL: 43 long whales, average price around 0.0237, with 38 in profit at the time; 66 short whales, average price around 0.0273, with only 7 in profit at the time
· BULLA: 43 long whales, average price around 0.0510, with only 1 still in profit at the time; 55 short whales, with position size around 2.2 times that of longs, average price around 0.0445, all 55 in profit at the time
The accompanying chart shows funding rates for BARD, BMT, and BTW. BARD’s 00:00 rate settled at -1.76%; the 04:00 estimate narrowed from -1.75% at midnight to around -1.41%, still a discount of about 2.4% to spot. BMT’s 00:00 rate settled at -0.70%; the 04:00 estimate is around -0.49%. BTW’s 00:00 rate settled at -0.29%; the 04:00 estimate is around -0.34%. My take: AKE’s 0.0082 wick and two failed attempts to hold 0.0133, with contract units still falling and accounts leaning more bearish, mean I won’t chase it. SHELL’s contract units doubled in two hours, but USD OI is only a little over five million, so I won’t chase the 0.0326 high either. SOPH failed to hold 0.002159. BULLA is near its daily low and accounts are still leaning long, so I won’t buy the dip. JCT bounced, but accounts are still around 76% long as before, so I won’t chase it either. BTC’s 68073 level is still holding for now; I’m watching 68355, and 70188 isn’t coming back tonight.
Not investment advice. Sources: Binance Futures API, Smart Money.
Leaderboard | Binance U-margined perpetuals, 24h percentage change (as of around 02:07 Beijing time; crypto assets only, trading volume ≥5 million U)
Top three gainers:
$AKE around +330%, current price ~0.0114. The midnight post had it around +279%, at 0.0111; its daily high was still 0.01185 then, and I wrote that I wouldn’t chase a second wave. But this midnight hourly candle saw around 189 million U in volume: it first plunged to 0.008235 at 00:10, then set a new daily high of 0.013331 at 00:40. This 1 a.m. candle also touched 0.01325
$SHELL around +63%, current price ~0.0315. It was still hovering around 0.020 at 22:00, with almost no volume. It only started moving at 23:00; this 1 a.m. candle traded around 18.35 million U, and it hit a daily high of 0.0326 at 01:55. It wasn’t in the top three at midnight
SOPH around +43%, current price ~0.00183. It set a new daily high of 0.002159 at 00:35 (the midnight post still had it at 0.001945 at 22:10), then fell to 0.001783 at 01:50. BARD has dropped to sixth, around +17%, current price ~0.144
Top three decliners:
$BULLA around -35%, current price ~0.0373. At midnight it was still at 0.0404, around -30%. It first bounced to 0.04605, then the 01:55 five-minute candle plunged from 0.04433 to 0.03666, just shy of the 0.03633 daily low from 21:59
AGT around -29%, current price ~0.0500. It touched 0.0557 at 00:10, then fell to 0.04846 at 01:45; the 0.0461 daily low from noon still stands
BTW around -15%, current price ~0.810. It has taken over from JCT in third place among the decliners. At midnight it was still around 0.865; it fell to 0.7944 at 01:55. The estimated funding rate for 04:00 is around -0.34%, a discount of about 1.1% to spot. At midnight JCT was still around -31%, at 0.00203; this 1 a.m. candle reached a high of 0.002549, and it’s now around 0.00219, off the decliners list
The broader market right now: BTC around 68820, about -4.3% over 24h. The 68073 low from 23:40 still holds; it bottomed at 68355 at 00:15 and rebounded to 69110 at 01:40. It hasn’t returned to 70188. Ether around 1937, BNB around 634
Smart money signals I noticed (Binance Smart Money, large-holder long/short ratio, OI, funding rates; around 02:07. Average price page timestamped around 18:25; unrealized P&L is not real-time):
· AKE: Contract units have fallen from around 4.14 billion at midnight to around 3.87 billion; USD OI is around 44.3 million. At 01:55, around 33% of accounts were long, more bearish than the 37% at 23:00; around 51% of positions were long. The 00:00 funding rate settled at +0.098%; the 04:00 estimate is around +0.11%
· SHELL: Contract units rose from around 77.7 million at 23:00 to around 167 million; USD OI is only around 5.27 million, and the order book is thin. At 01:55, around 54% of accounts were long, and around 57% of positions were long
· BULLA: Around 123 million contract units. At 01:55, around 59% of accounts were long, and around 64% of positions were long
· JCT: The price has bounced back, but at 02:00 around 76% of accounts were still long, and around 56% of positions were long
Whale P&L snapshot (based on average prices publicly shown by Binance Smart Money; page timestamped around 18:25, unverified):
· AKE: 69 long whales, average price around 0.00501, with 43 in profit at the time; 94 short whales, with position size around 2.9 times that of longs, average price around 0.00400, with 39 in profit at the time
· SHELL: 43 long whales, average price around 0.0237, with 38 in profit at the time; 66 short whales, average price around 0.0273, with only 7 in profit at the time
· BULLA: 43 long whales, average price around 0.0510, with only 1 still in profit at the time; 55 short whales, with position size around 2.2 times that of longs, average price around 0.0445, all 55 in profit at the time
The accompanying chart shows funding rates for BARD, BMT, and BTW. BARD’s 00:00 rate settled at -1.76%; the 04:00 estimate narrowed from -1.75% at midnight to around -1.41%, still a discount of about 2.4% to spot. BMT’s 00:00 rate settled at -0.70%; the 04:00 estimate is around -0.49%. BTW’s 00:00 rate settled at -0.29%; the 04:00 estimate is around -0.34%. My take: AKE’s 0.0082 wick and two failed attempts to hold 0.0133, with contract units still falling and accounts leaning more bearish, mean I won’t chase it. SHELL’s contract units doubled in two hours, but USD OI is only a little over five million, so I won’t chase the 0.0326 high either. SOPH failed to hold 0.002159. BULLA is near its daily low and accounts are still leaning long, so I won’t buy the dip. JCT bounced, but accounts are still around 76% long as before, so I won’t chase it either. BTC’s 68073 level is still holding for now; I’m watching 68355, and 70188 isn’t coming back tonight.
Not investment advice. Sources: Binance Futures API, Smart Money.
