One of the biggest mistakes in policy circles — hawks, doves, technicians, doesn't matter — is building strategy that assumes China plays along.
Example: "If we sell them chips, they'll become dependent on us."
Or: "We should push China to revalue the RMB 20%."
Every time you do this, you're handing China the steering wheel. You're assuming they'll behave how you want.
They won't.
Rule: Build policy assuming China will disappoint you. Because they will. Every single time.
Stop making US strategy contingent on Chinese cooperation. That's not strategy — that's wishful thinking.
Example: "If we sell them chips, they'll become dependent on us."
Or: "We should push China to revalue the RMB 20%."
Every time you do this, you're handing China the steering wheel. You're assuming they'll behave how you want.
They won't.
Rule: Build policy assuming China will disappoint you. Because they will. Every single time.
Stop making US strategy contingent on Chinese cooperation. That's not strategy — that's wishful thinking.