A 6.5% PPI eases the “more hawkish” tail risk, not the macro constraints on $BTC
Bottom line: The significance of this “below expectations” reading lies in the month-over-month figure, not the year-over-year figure. The annual rate of 6.5% is still the highest since November 2022, and the previous reading of 6.3% was also accelerating. The real softness was in the monthly rate: 0.3% versus expectations of 0.4% and a previous reading of 1.3%. Core PPI was 5% year over year and 0.3% month over month, exactly in line with expectations, so there was no additional upside surprise. This only reduces the tail-end bets on a 50-bp hike in December; 25 bps remains the base case, and the tightening bias itself has not reversed.
The rebound in $BTC was a short-covering burst, not the arrival of trend-following buyers. After the data, $BTC jumped from around $69,246 to near $70,000 in five minutes, triggering about $39 million in short liquidations. In the preceding 24 hours, more than $1.4 billion in leveraged longs had already been wiped out. The 10-year Treasury yield edged down only slightly, from 5.15% to 5.12%, and was subsequently still at 5.125%; the constraint from real interest rates barely budged.
What really matters is not the decimal point in this PPI release, but PCE and the December meeting. A one-tenth-of-a-percentage-point deviation in a single month is not enough to conclude that “pressure on BTC has lifted.”
#美国PPI年率6.5%，低于预期或缓解BTC压力
Bottom line: The significance of this “below expectations” reading lies in the month-over-month figure, not the year-over-year figure. The annual rate of 6.5% is still the highest since November 2022, and the previous reading of 6.3% was also accelerating. The real softness was in the monthly rate: 0.3% versus expectations of 0.4% and a previous reading of 1.3%. Core PPI was 5% year over year and 0.3% month over month, exactly in line with expectations, so there was no additional upside surprise. This only reduces the tail-end bets on a 50-bp hike in December; 25 bps remains the base case, and the tightening bias itself has not reversed.
The rebound in $BTC was a short-covering burst, not the arrival of trend-following buyers. After the data, $BTC jumped from around $69,246 to near $70,000 in five minutes, triggering about $39 million in short liquidations. In the preceding 24 hours, more than $1.4 billion in leveraged longs had already been wiped out. The 10-year Treasury yield edged down only slightly, from 5.15% to 5.12%, and was subsequently still at 5.125%; the constraint from real interest rates barely budged.
What really matters is not the decimal point in this PPI release, but PCE and the December meeting. A one-tenth-of-a-percentage-point deviation in a single month is not enough to conclude that “pressure on BTC has lifted.”
#美国PPI年率6.5%，低于预期或缓解BTC压力