October PPI was only a little cooler, but the mildly cool-data bounce in $SOXL lasted just half an hour: 66.93 plunged all the way to 52.41.
BLS: Headline month-over-month +0.3%, below the Dow Jones forecast of +0.4%; September revised up from +1.3% to +1.4%. Year-over-year +6.5% (forecast 6.6%, prior 6.3%), the largest increase since November 2022. Core month-over-month +0.3%, in line with expectations, but September revised up from +0.7% to +0.8%; year-over-year remained at 5.0%. Supercore, excluding trade services, continued at +0.5%. After the data, the probability of a 25 bp hike in December was reported at about 90%, while the odds of 50 bp fell from about 14%–15% to about 9%–10%; rate-hike pricing was not overturned.
Binance $SOXL perpetual is now around 53.42, with a 24-hour range of 52.41–69.02, down about 22.4%, and trading volume of about 5.10 billion U, ranking third among U-margined contracts. The 15-minute candle at 21:30 Beijing time surged to 66.93 (volume about 150 million U); the waterfall began at the 22:30 U.S. stock market open: hourly volume was 720 million U at 22:00 and rose to 1.111 billion U at 23:00, with a low of 52.41. Open interest went from about 3.81 million contracts before the data (notional value about 245 million U) to around 3.79 million contracts now (about 202 million U). Contract count barely fell, while notional value shrank along with the price. The share of long accounts rose from about 70% to 77%, while the funding rate remained at 0. Spot opened Friday around 63.30, hit a low of 52.36, and is now around 53.76 (Thursday close: 65.53).
Those who chased 66.9 at 21:30, treating “slightly cooler” as a reason for a rebound, gave back more than 14 points in under three hours. Those expecting consolidation in the 62.5–66 range were immediately swept aside at the open, and 58.42 did not hold either. The bulls who touched 69.02 during the day have already given back more than a fifth in a single day.
Path (inference, not guaranteed): Year-over-year inflation remains near a four-year high, and at least 25 bp for December is still priced in; slightly cooler PPI should not be treated as a shift in the tech outlook. Over the next 12–48 hours, if price cannot reclaim 57.33–58.42, first watch whether 52.04–52.41 can hold. If it breaks below that range and open interest rises, the next downside levels are 49–47. If 52.41 holds and price gets back above 58.42, a rebound to 62.5 becomes possible. The setup is invalidated if price rebounds and then breaks below 52.41 again on rising volume.
Futures trading carries risk; make your own independent assessment. U.S. stocks are still trading, and weekend liquidity will thin.
#合约 #币安 #美股 #SOXL #PPI
BLS: Headline month-over-month +0.3%, below the Dow Jones forecast of +0.4%; September revised up from +1.3% to +1.4%. Year-over-year +6.5% (forecast 6.6%, prior 6.3%), the largest increase since November 2022. Core month-over-month +0.3%, in line with expectations, but September revised up from +0.7% to +0.8%; year-over-year remained at 5.0%. Supercore, excluding trade services, continued at +0.5%. After the data, the probability of a 25 bp hike in December was reported at about 90%, while the odds of 50 bp fell from about 14%–15% to about 9%–10%; rate-hike pricing was not overturned.
Binance $SOXL perpetual is now around 53.42, with a 24-hour range of 52.41–69.02, down about 22.4%, and trading volume of about 5.10 billion U, ranking third among U-margined contracts. The 15-minute candle at 21:30 Beijing time surged to 66.93 (volume about 150 million U); the waterfall began at the 22:30 U.S. stock market open: hourly volume was 720 million U at 22:00 and rose to 1.111 billion U at 23:00, with a low of 52.41. Open interest went from about 3.81 million contracts before the data (notional value about 245 million U) to around 3.79 million contracts now (about 202 million U). Contract count barely fell, while notional value shrank along with the price. The share of long accounts rose from about 70% to 77%, while the funding rate remained at 0. Spot opened Friday around 63.30, hit a low of 52.36, and is now around 53.76 (Thursday close: 65.53).
Those who chased 66.9 at 21:30, treating “slightly cooler” as a reason for a rebound, gave back more than 14 points in under three hours. Those expecting consolidation in the 62.5–66 range were immediately swept aside at the open, and 58.42 did not hold either. The bulls who touched 69.02 during the day have already given back more than a fifth in a single day.
Path (inference, not guaranteed): Year-over-year inflation remains near a four-year high, and at least 25 bp for December is still priced in; slightly cooler PPI should not be treated as a shift in the tech outlook. Over the next 12–48 hours, if price cannot reclaim 57.33–58.42, first watch whether 52.04–52.41 can hold. If it breaks below that range and open interest rises, the next downside levels are 49–47. If 52.41 holds and price gets back above 58.42, a rebound to 62.5 becomes possible. The setup is invalidated if price rebounds and then breaks below 52.41 again on rising volume.
Futures trading carries risk; make your own independent assessment. U.S. stocks are still trading, and weekend liquidity will thin.
#合约 #币安 #美股 #SOXL #PPI