Okay, let’s see what’s happening on $ARIA #ARIAUSDT .P1h 🧐 m
- Price just failed to reclaim the 0.23 liquidity level after touching the 0.25310 supply level, and is now at 0.19474; I’m bearish on the 1-hour timeframe as long as price stays below the recent high, even though the daily and weekly structure remains bullish, so this is a countertrend short that needs a clear rejection before I trust it.
I expect the next move to be a test of the 0.15001 level first as the nearest demand level, then, if that leads to a sweep of the lower 0.10980 level, with 0.12468 acting as an intermediate magnet; crowded longs, rising open interest, and a still-bearish Bitcoin backdrop suggest this bounce is distribution rather than a new impulse.
- The entry zone I want is a rejection of 0.210–0.23170, preferably after liquidity is taken from the most recent lower high, rather than shorting the market with a tiny 0.13x position; wait for a bearish engulfing candle on the 1-hour timeframe or a market structure shift lower on a shorter timeframe before sizing into the trade.
- The confirmations I insist on: a hold or engulfing candle from 0.23, no close above the 0.23170 reversal level, and follow-through breaking the last hourly bullish low
- Price just failed to reclaim the 0.23 liquidity level after touching the 0.25310 supply level, and is now at 0.19474; I’m bearish on the 1-hour timeframe as long as price stays below the recent high, even though the daily and weekly structure remains bullish, so this is a countertrend short that needs a clear rejection before I trust it.
I expect the next move to be a test of the 0.15001 level first as the nearest demand level, then, if that leads to a sweep of the lower 0.10980 level, with 0.12468 acting as an intermediate magnet; crowded longs, rising open interest, and a still-bearish Bitcoin backdrop suggest this bounce is distribution rather than a new impulse.
- The entry zone I want is a rejection of 0.210–0.23170, preferably after liquidity is taken from the most recent lower high, rather than shorting the market with a tiny 0.13x position; wait for a bearish engulfing candle on the 1-hour timeframe or a market structure shift lower on a shorter timeframe before sizing into the trade.
- The confirmations I insist on: a hold or engulfing candle from 0.23, no close above the 0.23170 reversal level, and follow-through breaking the last hourly bullish low
