#whatwilldrivecryptoandstocks’nextrebound?
A WAVE OF LIQUIDATIONS ISN’T A REBOUND. WHAT WILL BRING BUYERS BACK?
BTC fell below $70,000, to around $68,900, its lowest level since August, and is down nearly 17% this quarter.
More than $1.3 billion in futures contracts were liquidated in 24 hours, including around $677 million in Bitcoin. About $500 million was liquidated when the price fell below $70,000.
Here’s the chain of events as I see it:
Elevated inflation in October (0.4% vs. 0.3%) → likelihood of a Fed rate hike on December 9 (around 85% for 25 basis points; some are talking about 50) → dollar index above 103, its highest level in 19 months → sell-off in crypto and tech stocks → liquidation of leveraged long positions.
My take: a wave of liquidations wipes out leverage, but it doesn’t bring buyers back. And buyers are needed for a rebound.
Here’s what I’d like to see before talking about a rebound:
ETF flows turning positive. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows for about five consecutive days, totaling around $1.4 billion, according to one tally. Stablecoin supply stopping its contraction. It has fallen by around $14 billion in 30 days. The dollar stopping its climb, and the next core CPI reading coming in below 0.3%. Bitcoin moving back above $70,000 and then $73,000, and holding above those levels. Below that, traders are watching $68,000, then the $65,000–$66,660 zone.
What’s your strategy? Share it in the comments 👇
$BTC
$AKE
$BARD
A WAVE OF LIQUIDATIONS ISN’T A REBOUND. WHAT WILL BRING BUYERS BACK?
BTC fell below $70,000, to around $68,900, its lowest level since August, and is down nearly 17% this quarter.
More than $1.3 billion in futures contracts were liquidated in 24 hours, including around $677 million in Bitcoin. About $500 million was liquidated when the price fell below $70,000.
Here’s the chain of events as I see it:
Elevated inflation in October (0.4% vs. 0.3%) → likelihood of a Fed rate hike on December 9 (around 85% for 25 basis points; some are talking about 50) → dollar index above 103, its highest level in 19 months → sell-off in crypto and tech stocks → liquidation of leveraged long positions.
My take: a wave of liquidations wipes out leverage, but it doesn’t bring buyers back. And buyers are needed for a rebound.
Here’s what I’d like to see before talking about a rebound:
ETF flows turning positive. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows for about five consecutive days, totaling around $1.4 billion, according to one tally. Stablecoin supply stopping its contraction. It has fallen by around $14 billion in 30 days. The dollar stopping its climb, and the next core CPI reading coming in below 0.3%. Bitcoin moving back above $70,000 and then $73,000, and holding above those levels. Below that, traders are watching $68,000, then the $65,000–$66,660 zone.
What’s your strategy? Share it in the comments 👇
$BTC
$AKE
$BARD
