Alts are bleeding twice as hard as Bitcoin — and history says the catch-up is a coin flip
$BTC $69,312, -5.0% in 24h (range 67,568-73,030, Binance volume $2.16B, 17:48 PKT). Total crypto market cap $2.35T, -6.2% in 24h (CoinGecko). BTC dominance 59.0%.
The 7-day scoreboard (Binance daily closes, 6-12 Nov):
BTC -6.1%. ETH -9.8%, SOL -8.5%, XRP -13.7%, UNI -10.9%, ENA -12.4%, AAVE -11.5%, ZEC -25.3%. Over 30 days: BTC -14.1%, but NEAR -32.1%, ENA -33.0%, AAVE -28.9%. Exceptions: BNB -4.8% (least-bad major), AVAX +2.3% over 7 days.
Why: this is a risk-off week, not a coin story. Hot Oct CPI, Dec hike odds 88% for 25bp and 12% for 50bp (CME FedWatch via CoinDesk), dollar index above 103 (19-month high), spot BTC ETFs outflows for a 6th straight day (Thu -$47.7M, ~$1.44B total, Farside), and $1.64B liquidations in 24h, 88.6% longs (CoinGlass via CoinDesk). The further out the risk curve, the harder the hit.
What history says (base-rate study, Binance daily closes, Mar 2024-Nov 2026): when BTC fell 5% or more in a week, the equal-weight basket of 10 major alts fell MORE than BTC in 34 of 42 weeks (81%). But the catch-up is a coin flip: in the next 7 days the alt basket beat BTC only 23 of 42 times (55%). ETH beat BTC 18 of 42 (43%), SUI 16 of 42 (38%). BTC itself was higher 7 days later in 22 of 42 (52%). N=42, closed candles only, current week excluded.
Deribit cross-check (20 Nov expiry, index ~$69,279): P(above $70,000) ~44%, P(below $68,000) ~35%, P(above $73,000) ~17%.
Expectations — not a guarantee: buying alts just because they fell more has no edge in the data. The bleed is the normal pattern; the rebound is not.
Plan: stand aside. Long $BTC only on a daily close above $70,000, stop below $67,568. Targets $70,000 then $73,137. A close below $68,000 opens $67,292 then $65,000. Next trigger: US PPI at 18:30 PKT tonight. Tiny size, spot only. Confidence: Low.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto
$BTC $69,312, -5.0% in 24h (range 67,568-73,030, Binance volume $2.16B, 17:48 PKT). Total crypto market cap $2.35T, -6.2% in 24h (CoinGecko). BTC dominance 59.0%.
The 7-day scoreboard (Binance daily closes, 6-12 Nov):
BTC -6.1%. ETH -9.8%, SOL -8.5%, XRP -13.7%, UNI -10.9%, ENA -12.4%, AAVE -11.5%, ZEC -25.3%. Over 30 days: BTC -14.1%, but NEAR -32.1%, ENA -33.0%, AAVE -28.9%. Exceptions: BNB -4.8% (least-bad major), AVAX +2.3% over 7 days.
Why: this is a risk-off week, not a coin story. Hot Oct CPI, Dec hike odds 88% for 25bp and 12% for 50bp (CME FedWatch via CoinDesk), dollar index above 103 (19-month high), spot BTC ETFs outflows for a 6th straight day (Thu -$47.7M, ~$1.44B total, Farside), and $1.64B liquidations in 24h, 88.6% longs (CoinGlass via CoinDesk). The further out the risk curve, the harder the hit.
What history says (base-rate study, Binance daily closes, Mar 2024-Nov 2026): when BTC fell 5% or more in a week, the equal-weight basket of 10 major alts fell MORE than BTC in 34 of 42 weeks (81%). But the catch-up is a coin flip: in the next 7 days the alt basket beat BTC only 23 of 42 times (55%). ETH beat BTC 18 of 42 (43%), SUI 16 of 42 (38%). BTC itself was higher 7 days later in 22 of 42 (52%). N=42, closed candles only, current week excluded.
Deribit cross-check (20 Nov expiry, index ~$69,279): P(above $70,000) ~44%, P(below $68,000) ~35%, P(above $73,000) ~17%.
Expectations — not a guarantee: buying alts just because they fell more has no edge in the data. The bleed is the normal pattern; the rebound is not.
Plan: stand aside. Long $BTC only on a daily close above $70,000, stop below $67,568. Targets $70,000 then $73,137. A close below $68,000 opens $67,292 then $65,000. Next trigger: US PPI at 18:30 PKT tonight. Tiny size, spot only. Confidence: Low.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto