Anthropic’s IPO subscription is already six times oversubscribed. According to Bloomberg on November 12, orders are about six times the shares available for sale. Underwriters Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have said existing shareholders will get priority, so new buyers are unlikely to get the allocation they want.
Here are the numbers: pricing on November 18, Nasdaq listing on the 19th, ticker ANT, offering price of $70 to $78 per share, and 825 million shares to be issued. The public offering could raise up to $64.35 billion, plus $26 billion in private placements, for a combined maximum of $90.4 billion—surpassing SpaceX to become the largest IPO in history. The fully diluted valuation is about $1.4 trillion, and underwriters are still considering raising it to $1.5 trillion. Third-quarter revenue was $17 billion, annualized revenue was $81 billion, and Nvidia alone subscribed for about $10 billion in the private placement.
Just a few days ago, some people were questioning whether the valuation was too high, and there were rumors the IPO might be delayed. The sixfold oversubscription has put those claims to rest. Still, my view is that even with all the demand, a $1.4 trillion valuation against $81 billion in annualized revenue works out to a price-to-sales ratio of around 17x. This is anything but cheap, and whether the stock can hold up on its first day remains to be seen. Binance has also launched the ANTHROPICUSDT Pre-IPO perpetual contract and today published a notice explaining how contract allocations are calculated. But the contract does not represent shares and gives you no allocation rights; it’s simply a tool for betting on the valuation ahead of time. It will only be more volatile than the actual stock, so I’m staying away. My plan is to wait for the shares to list on the 19th and see how they perform on day one before deciding whether this AI valuation wave has gotten ahead of itself.
#AnthropicIPO $BTC
Here are the numbers: pricing on November 18, Nasdaq listing on the 19th, ticker ANT, offering price of $70 to $78 per share, and 825 million shares to be issued. The public offering could raise up to $64.35 billion, plus $26 billion in private placements, for a combined maximum of $90.4 billion—surpassing SpaceX to become the largest IPO in history. The fully diluted valuation is about $1.4 trillion, and underwriters are still considering raising it to $1.5 trillion. Third-quarter revenue was $17 billion, annualized revenue was $81 billion, and Nvidia alone subscribed for about $10 billion in the private placement.
Just a few days ago, some people were questioning whether the valuation was too high, and there were rumors the IPO might be delayed. The sixfold oversubscription has put those claims to rest. Still, my view is that even with all the demand, a $1.4 trillion valuation against $81 billion in annualized revenue works out to a price-to-sales ratio of around 17x. This is anything but cheap, and whether the stock can hold up on its first day remains to be seen. Binance has also launched the ANTHROPICUSDT Pre-IPO perpetual contract and today published a notice explaining how contract allocations are calculated. But the contract does not represent shares and gives you no allocation rights; it’s simply a tool for betting on the valuation ahead of time. It will only be more volatile than the actual stock, so I’m staying away. My plan is to wait for the shares to list on the 19th and see how they perform on day one before deciding whether this AI valuation wave has gotten ahead of itself.
#AnthropicIPO $BTC