ETH falls to 1,960: the 2,000 round-number level failed to hold, and I’m more concerned that ETF money is still flowing out
Last time, I said BTC needed to hold 73,510 first, and that I wouldn’t call it a bottom until it did. ETH is facing the same issue today: the 2,000-dollar round-number level was already breached intraday on 11/12 (with a low of 1,983.82), and today (11/13) it continued lower, reaching 1,895.95. These are intraday figures; the daily close won’t be confirmed until 08:00 tomorrow morning Taipei time. I won’t say it held just because the current price is a little above the low.
Binance spot data (11/13, 19:25 Taipei time): ETH around 1,960, down 4.0% over 24 hours, with a range of 1,895.95–2,042.12; BTC around 69,419 (-5.4%), SOL around 80.65 (-2.7%). Looking at Binance’s UTC weekly candles (which open and close at 08:00 Monday Taipei time), ETH opened at 2,275.30 and closed at 2,127.46 last week (the week of 11/2), down about 6.5%; this week, it opened at 2,127.46 and is currently down about 7.9%. Over the same period, BTC is down about 7.3% and SOL about 6.8%, so ETH has fallen slightly more than BTC. This week’s low of 1,895.95 is already below last week’s low of 2,060.00. The current price is about 20.0% below the 11/4 high of 2,450.
The money flow hasn’t turned around either. Farside shows that U.S. spot ETH ETFs saw a combined net outflow of about $696 million over the first eight trading days of November (11/2–11/11). There was a net inflow of $53 million on just one of those eight days, 11/4; the other seven days all saw net outflows. There was a net outflow of $184.6 million on 11/9, $1.3 million on 11/10, and another $144.8 million on 11/11—about $331 million combined over those three days. Net outflows have continued for five trading days in a row since 11/5 (the data only goes through 11/11; I haven’t included the 11/12 figure). On the derivatives side, ETH perpetual funding rates over the latest eight periods have ranged from -0.005% to +0.009%. The latest reading (11/13, 16:00) was about +0.001%, close to zero, with no clear crowding on either the long or short side.
What does this mean? (The following is my interpretation.)
The price is falling, but funding rates aren’t notably high, so at least funding rates don’t suggest that longs are crowded. I’m more inclined to think that spot and ETF buying are insufficient. With no fresh net inflows into ETFs, 2,000 is simply a price level that has been breached, not support.
My view: Until money flows back in, I won’t treat the area around 1,896 as a new bottom. I’ll be watching three things next: a daily close back above 2,000; at least one clear day of net inflows into U.S. spot ETH ETFs; and, to say the trend has strengthened, a move back above 2,127.46 (last week’s close and this week’s open). If none of these happen, my view is that weakness is continuing, not that a reversal is underway. If 1,896 breaks again, I’ll look for lower levels rather than rushing to call it a bottom. These are just my own thresholds for observation, not buy or sell signals.
Rules like “what conditions would make me adjust my view” are most vulnerable to being changed after the fact. @OfficialOwl_AI’s OWL is a decentralized portfolio strategy platform covering U.S. stocks, ETFs, crypto assets, and commodities. Strategy vaults have been deployed on multiple EVM networks, with Robinhood Chain and Arc deployments in progress. Strategy managers can turn this kind of analysis into public strategies that can be verified on-chain. As of 10/31, TVL was 7,528,536 USDC, with 4,620 holder addresses. You can first Follow managers you’re interested in and Star their strategies, then decide whether to Subscribe.
I’m involved with OWL
Do you think ETH will reclaim 2,000 first, or will it need to search for lower levels?
For personal views only. Please manage your own position sizes and risk.
#ETH #以太坊 #ETF资金流
Last time, I said BTC needed to hold 73,510 first, and that I wouldn’t call it a bottom until it did. ETH is facing the same issue today: the 2,000-dollar round-number level was already breached intraday on 11/12 (with a low of 1,983.82), and today (11/13) it continued lower, reaching 1,895.95. These are intraday figures; the daily close won’t be confirmed until 08:00 tomorrow morning Taipei time. I won’t say it held just because the current price is a little above the low.
Binance spot data (11/13, 19:25 Taipei time): ETH around 1,960, down 4.0% over 24 hours, with a range of 1,895.95–2,042.12; BTC around 69,419 (-5.4%), SOL around 80.65 (-2.7%). Looking at Binance’s UTC weekly candles (which open and close at 08:00 Monday Taipei time), ETH opened at 2,275.30 and closed at 2,127.46 last week (the week of 11/2), down about 6.5%; this week, it opened at 2,127.46 and is currently down about 7.9%. Over the same period, BTC is down about 7.3% and SOL about 6.8%, so ETH has fallen slightly more than BTC. This week’s low of 1,895.95 is already below last week’s low of 2,060.00. The current price is about 20.0% below the 11/4 high of 2,450.
The money flow hasn’t turned around either. Farside shows that U.S. spot ETH ETFs saw a combined net outflow of about $696 million over the first eight trading days of November (11/2–11/11). There was a net inflow of $53 million on just one of those eight days, 11/4; the other seven days all saw net outflows. There was a net outflow of $184.6 million on 11/9, $1.3 million on 11/10, and another $144.8 million on 11/11—about $331 million combined over those three days. Net outflows have continued for five trading days in a row since 11/5 (the data only goes through 11/11; I haven’t included the 11/12 figure). On the derivatives side, ETH perpetual funding rates over the latest eight periods have ranged from -0.005% to +0.009%. The latest reading (11/13, 16:00) was about +0.001%, close to zero, with no clear crowding on either the long or short side.
What does this mean? (The following is my interpretation.)
The price is falling, but funding rates aren’t notably high, so at least funding rates don’t suggest that longs are crowded. I’m more inclined to think that spot and ETF buying are insufficient. With no fresh net inflows into ETFs, 2,000 is simply a price level that has been breached, not support.
My view: Until money flows back in, I won’t treat the area around 1,896 as a new bottom. I’ll be watching three things next: a daily close back above 2,000; at least one clear day of net inflows into U.S. spot ETH ETFs; and, to say the trend has strengthened, a move back above 2,127.46 (last week’s close and this week’s open). If none of these happen, my view is that weakness is continuing, not that a reversal is underway. If 1,896 breaks again, I’ll look for lower levels rather than rushing to call it a bottom. These are just my own thresholds for observation, not buy or sell signals.
Rules like “what conditions would make me adjust my view” are most vulnerable to being changed after the fact. @OfficialOwl_AI’s OWL is a decentralized portfolio strategy platform covering U.S. stocks, ETFs, crypto assets, and commodities. Strategy vaults have been deployed on multiple EVM networks, with Robinhood Chain and Arc deployments in progress. Strategy managers can turn this kind of analysis into public strategies that can be verified on-chain. As of 10/31, TVL was 7,528,536 USDC, with 4,620 holder addresses. You can first Follow managers you’re interested in and Star their strategies, then decide whether to Subscribe.
I’m involved with OWL
Do you think ETH will reclaim 2,000 first, or will it need to search for lower levels?
For personal views only. Please manage your own position sizes and risk.
#ETH #以太坊 #ETF资金流
