Today's Crypto Brief｜November 13
Evening, folks!! Bitcoin broke straight through $70K during the day, and has clawed back a little since. But tonight's PPI is still ahead of us—the main event is yet to come～
1️⃣ Prices: I just checked CoinGecko: Bitcoin is around $69.3K (still down about 5.6% over 24 hours). It hit a high of about $73K intraday and a low of about $67.9K; on Binance futures, the 24-hour low was around $67.6K. It's down about 8.9% over the week, and even more over the month—about 16.7%. ETH is around $1,951 (down about 4.5% for the day), with a low around $1,905; Binance's low was around $1,896. It's still struggling below $2,000, and is down about 12.8% for the week. BNB is around $639, SOL around $80. XRP briefly fell below $1 during the day and is now around $1.02. The total market cap is around $2.33 trillion, down about 6.8% over 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index is still at 20: extreme fear～
CoinDesk also pointed out this morning that Bitcoin's intraday low was around $67.7K, putting it below its 200-week moving average of roughly $68K.
My take: Don't mistake Bitcoin clawing its way back to $69.3K from the low for holding $70K haha. $70K has already given way, so don't rush to chase this little bounce.
2️⃣ Tonight's biggest event is still the U.S. October PPI at 21:30 Shanghai time!!! That's what the Bureau of Labor Statistics has on its official schedule for tonight. CNBC's market forecast is for a monthly increase of about 0.4%, compared with September's 1.3% jump. This is the last major inflation report before the December rate decision～
The same CNBC article (from early this morning Eastern time) also said that the 10-year Treasury yield was around 5.127%; CME FedWatch had priced in a 100% chance of a rate hike on December 9, with about an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point hike and about a 13% chance of a 50-basis-point hike.
My take: Whatever the forecasts say, let's look at the data first. If the data comes in hot again, the odds of a 50-basis-point hike could heat up further. Just don't go piling on leverage before the data comes out!!!
3️⃣ Leverage has already taken a serious beating today: I just checked CoinGlass (data updated to around 19:11 Shanghai time today). Bitcoin futures alone saw about $920 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with longs making up about 95%, or roughly $872 million; shorts accounted for only about $47 million. When I checked at noon, Bitcoin liquidations were only around $737 million—there's been another big wave of liquidations since then!!!
My take: Leverage has been flushed out, but the PPI is still pending. Don't rush to buy the dip haha.
4️⃣ A quick note on U.S. stocks: The news about Jensen Huang's resignation still hasn't been fully priced in. CNBC noted that Nvidia was up about 1.8% premarket (at 5 a.m. Eastern time this morning); Reuters said Nasdaq futures were still slightly lower. The dollar index climbed above 103 during the day, and CoinDesk noted this morning that gold had slipped below $3,900 and was hovering there.
My take: Don't assume that a small premarket gain for Nvidia means the risk is behind us～ U.S. markets open at 22:30 tonight, so first let's see whether PPI can move the needle.
5️⃣ What to watch tonight: First, October PPI at 21:30; then the U.S. market open at 22:30—and after that, it's the weekend. You saw the institutional flow data this afternoon too: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows this year. Until real buying returns, don't chase the spikes～
My take: Don't pile on leverage before the data. Just wait for the numbers, then make your move!!!
Overall: $70K has broken, fear is still high, and rate hikes are almost fully priced in. Tonight, it's all about whether PPI comes in hot. I'm not chasing this bounce from the lows; I'll digest the data first and take things step by step～
What do you think—after tonight's PPI comes out, will Bitcoin hold around $69K, or will it dip lower again?
$BTC $ETH
#加密快报 #Crypto
Evening, folks!! Bitcoin broke straight through $70K during the day, and has clawed back a little since. But tonight's PPI is still ahead of us—the main event is yet to come～
1️⃣ Prices: I just checked CoinGecko: Bitcoin is around $69.3K (still down about 5.6% over 24 hours). It hit a high of about $73K intraday and a low of about $67.9K; on Binance futures, the 24-hour low was around $67.6K. It's down about 8.9% over the week, and even more over the month—about 16.7%. ETH is around $1,951 (down about 4.5% for the day), with a low around $1,905; Binance's low was around $1,896. It's still struggling below $2,000, and is down about 12.8% for the week. BNB is around $639, SOL around $80. XRP briefly fell below $1 during the day and is now around $1.02. The total market cap is around $2.33 trillion, down about 6.8% over 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index is still at 20: extreme fear～
CoinDesk also pointed out this morning that Bitcoin's intraday low was around $67.7K, putting it below its 200-week moving average of roughly $68K.
My take: Don't mistake Bitcoin clawing its way back to $69.3K from the low for holding $70K haha. $70K has already given way, so don't rush to chase this little bounce.
2️⃣ Tonight's biggest event is still the U.S. October PPI at 21:30 Shanghai time!!! That's what the Bureau of Labor Statistics has on its official schedule for tonight. CNBC's market forecast is for a monthly increase of about 0.4%, compared with September's 1.3% jump. This is the last major inflation report before the December rate decision～
The same CNBC article (from early this morning Eastern time) also said that the 10-year Treasury yield was around 5.127%; CME FedWatch had priced in a 100% chance of a rate hike on December 9, with about an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point hike and about a 13% chance of a 50-basis-point hike.
My take: Whatever the forecasts say, let's look at the data first. If the data comes in hot again, the odds of a 50-basis-point hike could heat up further. Just don't go piling on leverage before the data comes out!!!
3️⃣ Leverage has already taken a serious beating today: I just checked CoinGlass (data updated to around 19:11 Shanghai time today). Bitcoin futures alone saw about $920 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with longs making up about 95%, or roughly $872 million; shorts accounted for only about $47 million. When I checked at noon, Bitcoin liquidations were only around $737 million—there's been another big wave of liquidations since then!!!
My take: Leverage has been flushed out, but the PPI is still pending. Don't rush to buy the dip haha.
4️⃣ A quick note on U.S. stocks: The news about Jensen Huang's resignation still hasn't been fully priced in. CNBC noted that Nvidia was up about 1.8% premarket (at 5 a.m. Eastern time this morning); Reuters said Nasdaq futures were still slightly lower. The dollar index climbed above 103 during the day, and CoinDesk noted this morning that gold had slipped below $3,900 and was hovering there.
My take: Don't assume that a small premarket gain for Nvidia means the risk is behind us～ U.S. markets open at 22:30 tonight, so first let's see whether PPI can move the needle.
5️⃣ What to watch tonight: First, October PPI at 21:30; then the U.S. market open at 22:30—and after that, it's the weekend. You saw the institutional flow data this afternoon too: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows this year. Until real buying returns, don't chase the spikes～
My take: Don't pile on leverage before the data. Just wait for the numbers, then make your move!!!
Overall: $70K has broken, fear is still high, and rate hikes are almost fully priced in. Tonight, it's all about whether PPI comes in hot. I'm not chasing this bounce from the lows; I'll digest the data first and take things step by step～
What do you think—after tonight's PPI comes out, will Bitcoin hold around $69K, or will it dip lower again?
$BTC $ETH
#加密快报 #Crypto