Gold at 3895—do you still dare to buy the dip?
Central banks bought 321 tons of gold in the third quarter, yet prices fell to a one-year low. You think 3852 is the bottom, but institutions are waiting for you to take the other side. Thursday’s long lower wick wasn’t a lifeline—it was a fishhook.
First, the surface picture: after falling for a whole week, gold finally bounced on Friday.
It plunged all the way down from a high of 4140, hitting a low of 3852 on Thursday—the lowest since October 2025. Dip buyers stepped in on Friday, pushing prices back into the 3890–3920 range.
The weekly candle will most likely close lower, down about 3.5%.
Are you thinking: It’s fallen so much, surely it’s due for a rebound?
First thing: central banks are buying, but interest rates are crushing gold.
Here’s some reassurance: global central banks bought 321 tons of gold in the third quarter, a sharp year-over-year increase, and China continues to add to its reserves. In the long run, gold has a solid foundation.
But don’t use a long-term argument to justify a short-term trade.
What’s weighing on gold right now? U.S. October CPI came in hotter than expected, with headline inflation hitting 0.4%. New York Fed President Williams and other officials struck a hawkish tone. The market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December has already reached 89%, and some are even betting on 50 basis points.
Rate hikes = stronger dollar = higher Treasury yields = higher opportunity cost of holding gold.
Gold pays no interest. The higher rates go, the more it costs to hold. That’s the strongest short-term argument against gold.
Second thing: the technical picture says this rebound is your chance to get out, not chase the price.
Look at the structure: the 4140–4150 area has rejected prices several times, forming a clear series of lower highs. After breaking below the rising trendline and key support, gold entered a downtrend channel.
Thursday’s long lower wick at 3852 did indeed hit a strong demand zone, where previous lows converged. Friday’s rebound was real, too.
But take note—the rebound ran into resistance at 3900–3920.
On the 4-hour chart, RSI has risen from oversold territory but remains in the weak 30–40 range. MACD is still below the zero line, and bearish momentum hasn’t faded. Prices have spent most of the time below the short-term moving averages.
Third thing: tonight’s PPI could be the final straw that breaks this rebound.
There’s a key data release today: U.S. PPI, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, which is tonight in Beijing.
If PPI comes in hot again → rate-hike expectations strengthen further → gold’s rebound gets cut short, with prices testing 3850 or even 3820.
If PPI comes in soft → gold could extend its rebound and test 3930–3950.
Going in heavily before the data comes out is gambling. Trading with the trend after the data is released—that’s trading.
Central banks bought 321 tons of gold in the third quarter, yet prices fell to a one-year low. You think 3852 is the bottom, but institutions are waiting for you to take the other side. Thursday’s long lower wick wasn’t a lifeline—it was a fishhook.
First, the surface picture: after falling for a whole week, gold finally bounced on Friday.
It plunged all the way down from a high of 4140, hitting a low of 3852 on Thursday—the lowest since October 2025. Dip buyers stepped in on Friday, pushing prices back into the 3890–3920 range.
The weekly candle will most likely close lower, down about 3.5%.
Are you thinking: It’s fallen so much, surely it’s due for a rebound?
First thing: central banks are buying, but interest rates are crushing gold.
Here’s some reassurance: global central banks bought 321 tons of gold in the third quarter, a sharp year-over-year increase, and China continues to add to its reserves. In the long run, gold has a solid foundation.
But don’t use a long-term argument to justify a short-term trade.
What’s weighing on gold right now? U.S. October CPI came in hotter than expected, with headline inflation hitting 0.4%. New York Fed President Williams and other officials struck a hawkish tone. The market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December has already reached 89%, and some are even betting on 50 basis points.
Rate hikes = stronger dollar = higher Treasury yields = higher opportunity cost of holding gold.
Gold pays no interest. The higher rates go, the more it costs to hold. That’s the strongest short-term argument against gold.
Second thing: the technical picture says this rebound is your chance to get out, not chase the price.
Look at the structure: the 4140–4150 area has rejected prices several times, forming a clear series of lower highs. After breaking below the rising trendline and key support, gold entered a downtrend channel.
Thursday’s long lower wick at 3852 did indeed hit a strong demand zone, where previous lows converged. Friday’s rebound was real, too.
But take note—the rebound ran into resistance at 3900–3920.
On the 4-hour chart, RSI has risen from oversold territory but remains in the weak 30–40 range. MACD is still below the zero line, and bearish momentum hasn’t faded. Prices have spent most of the time below the short-term moving averages.
Third thing: tonight’s PPI could be the final straw that breaks this rebound.
There’s a key data release today: U.S. PPI, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, which is tonight in Beijing.
If PPI comes in hot again → rate-hike expectations strengthen further → gold’s rebound gets cut short, with prices testing 3850 or even 3820.
If PPI comes in soft → gold could extend its rebound and test 3930–3950.
Going in heavily before the data comes out is gambling. Trading with the trend after the data is released—that’s trading.
