Early on November 13, Bitcoin fell below $70,000 for the first time in three months, touching an intraday low of $67,449. That’s about 46% below its all-time high of $126,000 on October 6. The same night, roughly $1.41 billion in positions were liquidated across the crypto market in 24 hours, 89% of them longs, forcing 173,000 traders to close their positions. This wasn’t triggered by any single headline. It was the culmination of a chain of data coming due: ETF money flowed out first, leveraged positions were liquidated next, and the MSCI decision still hangs in the balance.

1. ETF money: outflows lasted six days, but eased significantly on the sixth

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for six consecutive trading days. Across the five trading days from November 5 to 11, net outflows totaled about $1.44 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT saw outflows for nine straight days, totaling more than $2 billion. On November 11 alone, it saw $269.7 million in outflows, about 90% of the $299.8 million total market outflow that day.

But the turning point is hidden in the latest day’s data: preliminary figures for November 12 show net outflows of just $47.7 million. BITB led the declines with $26.4 million in outflows, while Morgan Stanley’s MSBT actually saw $3.3 million in net inflows. Outflows haven’t stopped, but they’ve fallen from the $300 million range to below $50 million. Cumulative net outflows since the start of November are about $1.95 billion (an extrapolation from SoSoValue’s roughly $1.6 billion figure as of November 10), with IBIT accounting for the vast majority. This round of redemptions isn’t a mass exodus by retail investors; it’s one leading fund driving the bulk of the selling—and its pace is slowing.

II. The leverage behind the liquidations: $70,000 is where long liquidations are most concentrated

About $1.41 billion in positions were liquidated over 24 hours, according to CoinGlass’s snapshot at 04:46 UTC on November 13. Long positions accounted for $1.26 billion, while shorts made up just $156 million. The pace is even more striking: $622 million was liquidated in just four hours, with nearly $500 million wiped out in the few minutes after Bitcoin fell below $70,000. The largest single liquidation was a $31.1 million long position on Hyperliquid, triggered at $72,250. It was wiped out before Bitcoin even fell to $70,000, showing that a dense band of long liquidations was already stacked below that level—once prices touched it, the liquidations cascaded.

Ethereum also fell below $2,000, reaching an intraday low of about $1,896. ETH liquidations over 24 hours totaled roughly $250 million to $290 million, depending on the snapshot. On November 11, spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $144.8 million in net outflows, of which BlackRock’s ETHA alone accounted for $129.8 million. The Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 19, deep in extreme fear territory.

III. The MSCI overhang: it’s stocks, not coins, being sold—but it will raise the cost of buying coins

On November 11, MSCI confirmed that Strategy’s Class A shares will be removed from the MSCI USA Index. The change takes effect at the November 30 close, with the new index taking effect on December 1. Five other companies, including Metaplanet, will also be removed in the same round, while 19 more have been placed on a watchlist.

It’s important to distinguish between two estimates. JPMorgan’s earlier estimate of about $2.8 billion is an upper-bound figure. Strategy’s own estimate is that funds tracking the relevant indexes hold only about 13 million shares, or 3.1% of its basic shares outstanding. At the November 11 closing price, that’s worth about $1.59 billion—less than half of $2.8 billion. And passive funds will be selling MSTR shares, not the 850,000 bitcoins on Strategy’s balance sheet: MSCI’s decision says nothing about selling coins.

But the knock-on effect is real: MSTR closed at $114.41 on November 12, down 6.49% for the day and 19.7% over five trading days. More importantly, Bitcoin is now around $69,300, below Strategy’s average purchase price of $75,456. This is the first time the treasury model has operated below its cost basis. A falling share price and a widening financing discount will make the next round of Bitcoin purchases more expensive.

IV. Tonight’s test: PPI

October PPI will be released at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight (8:30 a.m. Eastern). The market expects a 0.4% month-over-month increase and a 6.6% year-over-year increase, with core PPI up 0.3% month over month. September PPI rose 1.3% month over month and 6.3% year over year, its hottest reading in years. Core CPI rose 0.4% month over month in October, already above expectations, and the probability of a rate hike in December is around 90%. If PPI comes in hot again, rate-hike expectations will be locked in, making it hard for ETF outflows to ease. A cooler PPI reading would be the first stepping stone toward outflows narrowing and eventually turning positive.

My view: treat this move as a combination of a leverage-liquidation cascade and ETF redemptions, not a collapse in crypto fundamentals—because preliminary ETF outflows on November 12 had already narrowed to $47.7 million, and spot selling didn’t accelerate alongside the liquidations. But the passive selling tied to MSCI won’t take effect until November 30. The real test will be portfolio rebalancing in the two weeks before then: selling pressure from about 13 million shares, worth roughly $1.5 billion at current prices, will be worked through gradually. MSTR has already taken an early hit, absorbing some of that pressure in advance. Invalidation: if MSTR closes below $100 for two consecutive days (about 12.6% below its November 12 close of $114.41) and Bitcoin closes below $67,000 for two consecutive days (about 3.3% below its current price of roughly $69,300), passive selling will escalate into a crisis of confidence in the treasury model, with $65,000 as the next downside target. Conversely, if MSTR closes back above $135.50 (the 20-day moving average) for two consecutive days and Bitcoin recovers to $73,200 (the 200-day moving average), the MSCI overhang will have passed.

After tonight’s PPI report, which side are you on: will Bitcoin reclaim $73,000 first, or test $65,000 first?

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