When I checked the markets that evening, Bitcoin had fallen below $70,000.

Bitcoin hit an intraday low of around $68,297 (according to Bloomberg, November 13), returning to that level for the first time since August 19. It was down about 6.8% in 24 hours (CoinGecko, around $68,903 as of 04:00 UTC on November 13), and had fallen about 46% from its all-time high of around $126,156. Ether also fell below $2,000, to around $1,913. The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 19: extreme fear.

Today, I looked back on three things.

First, this drop wasn’t caused by something within crypto. Nvidia’s November 12 SEC filing confirmed that Jensen Huang had resigned from his roles, including CEO, effective November 11. On the same day, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above 5.1%, and the dollar index broke above 103, reaching its highest level in about 19 months. Macro conditions are tightening, putting pressure on risk assets across the board. Crypto just happened to be the most visibly affected.

Second, leverage gets wiped out first, and institutions are pulling back too. CoinGlass data shows that more than $1.3 billion was liquidated across the market over the past 24 hours, including about $677 million in Bitcoin futures liquidations, roughly 96% of which were long positions. Spot Bitcoin ETFs don’t look good either: cumulative net outflows topped $2.5 billion from October 30 to November 11, followed by another roughly $47.7 million in outflows on November 12 alone. When prices fall, the first ones carried out are always those who borrowed money to chase the rally.

Third, there’s still one event tonight that hasn’t happened yet. The U.S. October PPI will be released at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight. It’s expected to rise 0.4% month over month and 6.6% year over year, while September’s month-over-month increase was 1.3%, far above expectations. The result isn’t out yet, so I’m not guessing which way it’ll go. I’m just noting the time: I’m staying put until the PPI comes out.

But what this review really wants to talk about isn’t the candlestick chart.

That same day, USDT was trading at around $0.9992 and USDC at around $0.9996 (CoinGecko figures as of November 13, 05:43 UTC), both close to $1. According to DefiLlama, the total stablecoin supply was about $285.6 billion, with USDT at around $175.5 billion and USDC at around $69.45 billion. Bitcoin fell 6.8% in a day, while that $1 barely moved.

My take is that the money hasn’t left this market; it’s just moved somewhere else—from “betting on direction” to “first, staying close to $1.” But there’s a caveat: the total supply shrank by about 5.4% over 30 days, which shows that some people are also redeeming and leaving. So it’s not that “all stablecoins are stable.” You have to look at them separately: which coins are still firmly pegged, and which are shrinking in supply? The answers differ.

That’s also why I check PayAll’s stablecoin overview first every evening. The total supply, sources, and update times are all shown there, and I can compare different data sources side by side instead of cross-checking the numbers myself. Then I check the depeg monitor, which alerts me if a coin moves off its peg and gives me three options: keep holding, pause, or exchange immediately. I choose myself, without having to watch the markets in the middle of the night. When prices fall, I first check “where the money is,” then think about “how far prices might fall.”

Before tonight’s PPI comes out, I have just two things planned: check the overview and depeg monitor to make sure the $1 I’m holding is still there; as for the rest, I’ll wait until the data is released. On an evening when the Fear and Greed Index is at 19, securing what I can is more practical than guessing where a rebound might happen.

#比特币 #Stablecoins