Bitcoin lost the 200-day moving average just one day ago, and it’s already touched the 200-week moving average.
Bitcoin ($BTC ) is currently around $68,902, with an intraday low of $67,568, down 6.2% on the day. It closed at $71,460 yesterday. The 200-week moving average is around $67,800, with different sources putting it between $67,700 and $68,000. The current price is only about 1.5% above this level; the intraday low briefly dipped below it before bouncing back above $68,900.
What this line represents: It reflects the average cost basis over roughly the past 1,400 trading days. Since 2015, the bottom of nearly every bear market has formed around or slightly below this line. Over the 654 weeks since 2014, the price has closed below it only about 8% of the time. The 50-week moving average, around $75,500, and the 200-day moving average, around $73,100, have both been lost, leaving this as the last line of long-term defense. The daily RSI is around 25, already in oversold territory.
How to read it: This line means “historically cheap,” not “it can’t fall further.” It has been breached in 2018, March 2020, and 2022; sometimes for weeks, sometimes for months, and prices have continued falling when they failed to hold above it at the close. The next potential catalyst is the U.S. October PPI release tonight at 21:30, with forecasts of +0.4% month over month for headline PPI and +0.3% for core. There are three possible scenarios: If PPI comes in at or below expectations and the price holds above $67,800, watch for a short-covering bounce, with $70,500–$71,000 as the first target zone. If PPI comes in above expectations and the price closes below $67,800, the next stop is $65,000–$67,000, lending more credence to the case for a structural bear market. If the price continues to churn between $67,800 and $70,000, oversold RSI may spark a bounce, but until the price gets back above $73,100, it’s just a bounce, not a reversal.
Data as of: 2026-11-13 09:27 UTC
For informational purposes only; this is not investment advice.
Bitcoin ($BTC ) is currently around $68,902, with an intraday low of $67,568, down 6.2% on the day. It closed at $71,460 yesterday. The 200-week moving average is around $67,800, with different sources putting it between $67,700 and $68,000. The current price is only about 1.5% above this level; the intraday low briefly dipped below it before bouncing back above $68,900.
What this line represents: It reflects the average cost basis over roughly the past 1,400 trading days. Since 2015, the bottom of nearly every bear market has formed around or slightly below this line. Over the 654 weeks since 2014, the price has closed below it only about 8% of the time. The 50-week moving average, around $75,500, and the 200-day moving average, around $73,100, have both been lost, leaving this as the last line of long-term defense. The daily RSI is around 25, already in oversold territory.
How to read it: This line means “historically cheap,” not “it can’t fall further.” It has been breached in 2018, March 2020, and 2022; sometimes for weeks, sometimes for months, and prices have continued falling when they failed to hold above it at the close. The next potential catalyst is the U.S. October PPI release tonight at 21:30, with forecasts of +0.4% month over month for headline PPI and +0.3% for core. There are three possible scenarios: If PPI comes in at or below expectations and the price holds above $67,800, watch for a short-covering bounce, with $70,500–$71,000 as the first target zone. If PPI comes in above expectations and the price closes below $67,800, the next stop is $65,000–$67,000, lending more credence to the case for a structural bear market. If the price continues to churn between $67,800 and $70,000, oversold RSI may spark a bounce, but until the price gets back above $73,100, it’s just a bounce, not a reversal.
Data as of: 2026-11-13 09:27 UTC
For informational purposes only; this is not investment advice.
