【BTC falls to $68,000 as the toughest phase of the bull market arrives】
$BTC has now closed lower for five consecutive weeks, and the sixth week is not over yet. Its price has also fallen steadily from around $75,000 to $68,000. Looking back, this correction might have been just a normal pullback during a bull market. But it coincided with a shift in macroeconomic expectations, a retreat in U.S. tech stocks, and a string of negative events in crypto. These forces piled up, stretching the correction both in duration and in depth.
Earlier, oil prices fell, and the market briefly hoped inflationary pressure would ease, giving risk assets a chance to catch their breath. But U.S. tech stocks then remained under pressure, and the AI sector’s high valuations began to be tested. Huang Renxun’s sudden resignation as Nvidia CEO dealt the market a heavy blow. Sharp swings in a major bellwether like Nvidia affect more than chip stocks alone; they can also undermine confidence in the broader AI trade and in high-risk assets. BTC is closely tied to risk appetite for tech stocks, so it is hard for it to escape the fallout.
The crypto market itself has offered little support. The Binance security incident in late October involved about $6.34 billion in assets. Although Binance later said it had replenished 98% of the affected assets and would cover user losses, the damage such events do to market confidence does not disappear overnight. Meanwhile, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.44 billion. Institutional investors have not stepped in to provide support, while the futures market has continued to liquidate long positions. In the 24 hours leading up to November 13, roughly $1.47 billion in positions across the market were liquidated, most of them longs. The pain is no longer limited to highly leveraged traders; spot holders are also facing increasingly heavy unrealized losses.
That is also why I find this market cycle particularly grueling. When prices rise, money can rush in all at once; when they pull back, meaningful buying support is nowhere to be found. Prices fall fast, rebounds lack staying power, and what looks like a stable sideways market can suddenly turn lower again.
Of course, I don’t think this means the bull market is over. I’m still hopeful about late November to early December, and even think we could see a decent recovery. But that view can’t be based solely on the fact that prices have fallen a lot. At a minimum, we need to see risk appetite in U.S. stocks stabilize, ETF outflows ease significantly, and BTC climb back above the $75,000–$76,000 range.
$BTC has now closed lower for five consecutive weeks, and the sixth week is not over yet. Its price has also fallen steadily from around $75,000 to $68,000. Looking back, this correction might have been just a normal pullback during a bull market. But it coincided with a shift in macroeconomic expectations, a retreat in U.S. tech stocks, and a string of negative events in crypto. These forces piled up, stretching the correction both in duration and in depth.
Earlier, oil prices fell, and the market briefly hoped inflationary pressure would ease, giving risk assets a chance to catch their breath. But U.S. tech stocks then remained under pressure, and the AI sector’s high valuations began to be tested. Huang Renxun’s sudden resignation as Nvidia CEO dealt the market a heavy blow. Sharp swings in a major bellwether like Nvidia affect more than chip stocks alone; they can also undermine confidence in the broader AI trade and in high-risk assets. BTC is closely tied to risk appetite for tech stocks, so it is hard for it to escape the fallout.
The crypto market itself has offered little support. The Binance security incident in late October involved about $6.34 billion in assets. Although Binance later said it had replenished 98% of the affected assets and would cover user losses, the damage such events do to market confidence does not disappear overnight. Meanwhile, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.44 billion. Institutional investors have not stepped in to provide support, while the futures market has continued to liquidate long positions. In the 24 hours leading up to November 13, roughly $1.47 billion in positions across the market were liquidated, most of them longs. The pain is no longer limited to highly leveraged traders; spot holders are also facing increasingly heavy unrealized losses.
That is also why I find this market cycle particularly grueling. When prices rise, money can rush in all at once; when they pull back, meaningful buying support is nowhere to be found. Prices fall fast, rebounds lack staying power, and what looks like a stable sideways market can suddenly turn lower again.
Of course, I don’t think this means the bull market is over. I’m still hopeful about late November to early December, and even think we could see a decent recovery. But that view can’t be based solely on the fact that prices have fallen a lot. At a minimum, we need to see risk appetite in U.S. stocks stabilize, ETF outflows ease significantly, and BTC climb back above the $75,000–$76,000 range.