The 16:00 options expired, but the price didn’t move toward the max pain level of $77,000—my short is at a new high in unrealized profit. Let me give you the numbers first, then the conclusion.
At 17:00, $BTC was around $68,741, down 6.5% in 24 hours; $ETH was around $1,933, down 5.6% (CoinGecko, checked live at 17:00 Beijing time). The 16:00 four-hour candle closed at around $68,541, marking the 27th consecutive close below $75,000.
The 33,902 BTC options that expired today at 16:00 had a max pain level of $77,000. The closing price was about $8,500 away from it—the options-expiry drama is over, and the price wasn’t pulled upward at all. Now it all comes down to tonight’s U.S. October PPI at 21:30.
Short position tracker #45: I opened a short at 75,800–76,100 on November 7 at 13:00, with a midpoint entry of 75,950. At the current price of 68,741, the price is down 9.49%, putting the remaining half at about +949% unrealized profit on 100x leverage—at 15:00 it was +908%. The added short half (opened at 74,700–75,000 on November 9 at 13:00, midpoint entry 74,850) is up about +816% (it was +774% at 15:00). Half of the position was closed at target one, 73,200, in the early hours of November 11 (original short +362%, added short +220%). Honestly, this trade is making a lot of money now, but it hasn’t reached the target yet, so there’s no rush to celebrate.
Target two at 68,000 is just $741 away. Since 15:00, the price has dipped as low as about $68,541 (CoinGecko hourly candles), but it hasn’t touched the target, so I’m not reducing the position. A target isn’t hit until it’s hit. Analysts see key support at $68,655 (Blockonomi), and the current price is right up against that level; below it is the 200-week moving average at around $67,879 (coinlab). About $1.47 billion in liquidations hit the market over 24 hours, around $1.31 billion of them long positions (according to a roundup by tradingwithishaan), and liquidations are still pushing prices around.
Preliminary ETF data for Thursday (November 12): net outflows of about $47.7 million (DefiLlama, via coinjuice), marking a sixth consecutive trading day of outflows, but a sharp slowdown from Wednesday’s roughly $300 million. Outflows haven’t stopped, but they’re not as severe. Final figures for IBIT and FBTC won’t be out until tonight, so don’t rush to call this a reversal signal. RSI is around 24.9, deep in oversold territory (coinlab)—oversold isn’t a buy-the-dip signal; it’s a reminder not to chase shorts at this level.
The plan hasn’t changed: keep holding the remaining half, with target two at 68,000, and close it according to plan if it gets there—no getting greedy. No adding to the position today. The rule against chasing shorts unless the price breaks below 71,500 and fails to recover by the four-hour close still stands. I won’t trade during the hour before or after the PPI release (20:30–22:30). A hotter-than-expected reading → 68,000 will probably break tonight; a cooler reading → first look for a bounce to 70,000–71,500, which is still my zone to add shorts, not to flip long. A bounce back to 75,300–75,500 remains a short-add zone. If the daily candle closes back above the 200-day moving average at 73,125, or a four-hour candle closes above 76,250, I’ll admit I’m wrong and exit. Stop-loss above 77,500 remains unchanged. With 100x leverage, I’m only putting a very small portion of my total capital at risk.
Sanctum is still up 122% in a day on the trending list. I only use small caps as a sentiment gauge—I’m not touching them. ZEC remains below $1,000.
Can 68,000 be reached tonight after the PPI? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: CoinGecko, checked live at 17:00 Beijing time on November 13; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
At 17:00, $BTC was around $68,741, down 6.5% in 24 hours; $ETH was around $1,933, down 5.6% (CoinGecko, checked live at 17:00 Beijing time). The 16:00 four-hour candle closed at around $68,541, marking the 27th consecutive close below $75,000.
The 33,902 BTC options that expired today at 16:00 had a max pain level of $77,000. The closing price was about $8,500 away from it—the options-expiry drama is over, and the price wasn’t pulled upward at all. Now it all comes down to tonight’s U.S. October PPI at 21:30.
Short position tracker #45: I opened a short at 75,800–76,100 on November 7 at 13:00, with a midpoint entry of 75,950. At the current price of 68,741, the price is down 9.49%, putting the remaining half at about +949% unrealized profit on 100x leverage—at 15:00 it was +908%. The added short half (opened at 74,700–75,000 on November 9 at 13:00, midpoint entry 74,850) is up about +816% (it was +774% at 15:00). Half of the position was closed at target one, 73,200, in the early hours of November 11 (original short +362%, added short +220%). Honestly, this trade is making a lot of money now, but it hasn’t reached the target yet, so there’s no rush to celebrate.
Target two at 68,000 is just $741 away. Since 15:00, the price has dipped as low as about $68,541 (CoinGecko hourly candles), but it hasn’t touched the target, so I’m not reducing the position. A target isn’t hit until it’s hit. Analysts see key support at $68,655 (Blockonomi), and the current price is right up against that level; below it is the 200-week moving average at around $67,879 (coinlab). About $1.47 billion in liquidations hit the market over 24 hours, around $1.31 billion of them long positions (according to a roundup by tradingwithishaan), and liquidations are still pushing prices around.
Preliminary ETF data for Thursday (November 12): net outflows of about $47.7 million (DefiLlama, via coinjuice), marking a sixth consecutive trading day of outflows, but a sharp slowdown from Wednesday’s roughly $300 million. Outflows haven’t stopped, but they’re not as severe. Final figures for IBIT and FBTC won’t be out until tonight, so don’t rush to call this a reversal signal. RSI is around 24.9, deep in oversold territory (coinlab)—oversold isn’t a buy-the-dip signal; it’s a reminder not to chase shorts at this level.
The plan hasn’t changed: keep holding the remaining half, with target two at 68,000, and close it according to plan if it gets there—no getting greedy. No adding to the position today. The rule against chasing shorts unless the price breaks below 71,500 and fails to recover by the four-hour close still stands. I won’t trade during the hour before or after the PPI release (20:30–22:30). A hotter-than-expected reading → 68,000 will probably break tonight; a cooler reading → first look for a bounce to 70,000–71,500, which is still my zone to add shorts, not to flip long. A bounce back to 75,300–75,500 remains a short-add zone. If the daily candle closes back above the 200-day moving average at 73,125, or a four-hour candle closes above 76,250, I’ll admit I’m wrong and exit. Stop-loss above 77,500 remains unchanged. With 100x leverage, I’m only putting a very small portion of my total capital at risk.
Sanctum is still up 122% in a day on the trending list. I only use small caps as a sentiment gauge—I’m not touching them. ZEC remains below $1,000.
Can 68,000 be reached tonight after the PPI? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: CoinGecko, checked live at 17:00 Beijing time on November 13; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
