BTC is now just 1% above its 200-week average — the line that has marked the bottom of every bear market since 2015.
Context: that line is around the 67,750–68,000 zone (Coinfuty 67,861, Corgano 67,876, Trademarkus research 67,752 for the week ending Nov. 8). Today BTC briefly touched 67,490 — below the line — then returned to around 68,700. The price-to-line ratio: 1.01x. To be honest, the history is mixed: this line held as support at the bottoms in 2018, 2020, and 2022, but each time it was also breached for weeks; since 2018, there have been 5 episodes of the price closing below it, with the deepest drop reaching 0.66x the line. For comparison: ETH is already about 21% below its own 200-week average (2,560 vs. around 1,931), so BTC is relatively stronger.
Bullish scenario: the daily close holds above the 68,000 zone and tonight's PPI (20:30 WIB) comes in cool — the line remains support, and then I'll watch for a reclaim of 70,000.
Bearish scenario: the weekly close falls below the line — the 2022 precedent suggests the breach could last for weeks, with 65,000–66,500 as the next target.
My takeaway: I'll wait for the weekly close, not an intraday wick. One touch below the line doesn't invalidate anything yet, but it also doesn't prove the bottom is in. Tonight's PPI could change the picture before the weekend.
What do you think: is this 200-week line still support, or will it be broken this week?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#Bitcoin #AnalisisCrypto $BTC $ETH
Context: that line is around the 67,750–68,000 zone (Coinfuty 67,861, Corgano 67,876, Trademarkus research 67,752 for the week ending Nov. 8). Today BTC briefly touched 67,490 — below the line — then returned to around 68,700. The price-to-line ratio: 1.01x. To be honest, the history is mixed: this line held as support at the bottoms in 2018, 2020, and 2022, but each time it was also breached for weeks; since 2018, there have been 5 episodes of the price closing below it, with the deepest drop reaching 0.66x the line. For comparison: ETH is already about 21% below its own 200-week average (2,560 vs. around 1,931), so BTC is relatively stronger.
Bullish scenario: the daily close holds above the 68,000 zone and tonight's PPI (20:30 WIB) comes in cool — the line remains support, and then I'll watch for a reclaim of 70,000.
Bearish scenario: the weekly close falls below the line — the 2022 precedent suggests the breach could last for weeks, with 65,000–66,500 as the next target.
My takeaway: I'll wait for the weekly close, not an intraday wick. One touch below the line doesn't invalidate anything yet, but it also doesn't prove the bottom is in. Tonight's PPI could change the picture before the weekend.
What do you think: is this 200-week line still support, or will it be broken this week?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#Bitcoin #AnalisisCrypto $BTC $ETH