October PPI is released tonight at 20:30 WIB — hot or cool? The answer will determine BTC’s direction this weekend.
View A — Hot PPI: October CPI was already hotter than expected (0.4% vs. 0.3%), September PPI surged 1.3% in a month, and Fed Governor Waller has already opened the door to a 50bp hike in December. The market has priced in about a 90% chance of a 25bp hike — a hot PPI reading would simply lock in that hawkish scenario, and risk assets are usually the first to take a hit.
View B — Cool PPI: precisely because everyone is already expecting a hot reading, a cool surprise has more room to move the market. BTC is already around 68,690, below 70,000, with the daily RSI at around 25 — the market is deeply oversold, and leveraged positions have already been cleared out through more than $1.4 billion in liquidations over 24 hours. A softer reading could be a reason for a bounce, not a reason to sell.
My bias: I’m leaning toward PPI coming in hot or in line with expectations — with CPI already running hot, I find it hard to imagine producer prices suddenly cooling. But I’d change my view if core PPI comes in below 0.2%: that would mean upstream price pressures have eased, and the case for a December hike would weaken too.
Reply in the comments: A or B — and your strongest reason.
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#DebatDuaSisi #InflasiAS $BTC
View A — Hot PPI: October CPI was already hotter than expected (0.4% vs. 0.3%), September PPI surged 1.3% in a month, and Fed Governor Waller has already opened the door to a 50bp hike in December. The market has priced in about a 90% chance of a 25bp hike — a hot PPI reading would simply lock in that hawkish scenario, and risk assets are usually the first to take a hit.
View B — Cool PPI: precisely because everyone is already expecting a hot reading, a cool surprise has more room to move the market. BTC is already around 68,690, below 70,000, with the daily RSI at around 25 — the market is deeply oversold, and leveraged positions have already been cleared out through more than $1.4 billion in liquidations over 24 hours. A softer reading could be a reason for a bounce, not a reason to sell.
My bias: I’m leaning toward PPI coming in hot or in line with expectations — with CPI already running hot, I find it hard to imagine producer prices suddenly cooling. But I’d change my view if core PPI comes in below 0.2%: that would mean upstream price pressures have eased, and the case for a December hike would weaken too.
Reply in the comments: A or B — and your strongest reason.
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#DebatDuaSisi #InflasiAS $BTC