Predicted the move—so did they know the news in advance?
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After a major event, it’s especially easy to conflate two different things: a successful price forecast and knowledge of the reason that later made the headlines.
Imagine that $BTC started rising before the news was published. Afterward, a confident explanation appears: “It was all visible on the chart in advance.” But a similar rise could have accompanied buying, short covering, or a shift in expectations for an entirely different reason.
The fact that a move happened early doesn’t let you single out one future news story from all the possibilities. Testing that kind of ability requires a separate review of specific predictions recorded before the event.
That’s why it’s useful to distinguish between the claims “I expected the price to move” and “I predicted a specific decision on a specific date.” Evidence for the first doesn’t prove the second.
A good analysis preserves the wording, timeframe, and conditions for being wrong in advance. This prevents memory from finding the perfect explanation after the fact.
What was recorded before the event: the direction of the price, or the news itself?
...
After a major event, it’s especially easy to conflate two different things: a successful price forecast and knowledge of the reason that later made the headlines.
Imagine that $BTC started rising before the news was published. Afterward, a confident explanation appears: “It was all visible on the chart in advance.” But a similar rise could have accompanied buying, short covering, or a shift in expectations for an entirely different reason.
The fact that a move happened early doesn’t let you single out one future news story from all the possibilities. Testing that kind of ability requires a separate review of specific predictions recorded before the event.
That’s why it’s useful to distinguish between the claims “I expected the price to move” and “I predicted a specific decision on a specific date.” Evidence for the first doesn’t prove the second.
A good analysis preserves the wording, timeframe, and conditions for being wrong in advance. This prevents memory from finding the perfect explanation after the fact.
What was recorded before the event: the direction of the price, or the news itself?