Around $69,200, Bitcoin officially fell below the $70,000 mark this morning, briefly dipping below $69,000 intraday to a nearly three-month low.
About $1.4 billion in positions were liquidated across the market in 24 hours, nearly 90% of them longs. Ethereum also briefly fell below $2,000, and the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 19, signaling extreme fear. This hit leverage, not spot holdings.
Spot ETF data doesn't support the claim of “panic selling”: after $299.8 million in outflows on November 11, preliminary data showed just $47.7 million in outflows on November 12—and BlackRock and Fidelity haven't reported yet. Selling pressure is easing, not intensifying. Total outflows over six trading days came to about $1.49 billion, but the pace has slowed from $400 million a day to less than $50 million.
I think October's PPI, due at 21:30 tonight, is the next key catalyst: expectations are for a 0.4% month-over-month rise. A higher-than-expected reading would further raise the odds of a 50-basis-point rate hike in December, and Bitcoin would have to test support around $68,000. If the reading is in line with expectations, the initial target for an oversold rebound is $72,000.
Invalidation levels: Bitcoin closes below $67,000 for two consecutive days and ETFs see another daily net outflow of over $300 million (spot selling takes over, invalidating the liquidation-cascade thesis); or Bitcoin closes above $73,200 for two consecutive days and ETFs turn to net inflows (panic subsides).
Which side are you on: after tonight's PPI, will Bitcoin return to $72,000 first, or drop to $65,000 first?
$BTC $ETH
#WhatWillDriveCryptoandStocks'NextRebound?
About $1.4 billion in positions were liquidated across the market in 24 hours, nearly 90% of them longs. Ethereum also briefly fell below $2,000, and the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 19, signaling extreme fear. This hit leverage, not spot holdings.
Spot ETF data doesn't support the claim of “panic selling”: after $299.8 million in outflows on November 11, preliminary data showed just $47.7 million in outflows on November 12—and BlackRock and Fidelity haven't reported yet. Selling pressure is easing, not intensifying. Total outflows over six trading days came to about $1.49 billion, but the pace has slowed from $400 million a day to less than $50 million.
I think October's PPI, due at 21:30 tonight, is the next key catalyst: expectations are for a 0.4% month-over-month rise. A higher-than-expected reading would further raise the odds of a 50-basis-point rate hike in December, and Bitcoin would have to test support around $68,000. If the reading is in line with expectations, the initial target for an oversold rebound is $72,000.
Invalidation levels: Bitcoin closes below $67,000 for two consecutive days and ETFs see another daily net outflow of over $300 million (spot selling takes over, invalidating the liquidation-cascade thesis); or Bitcoin closes above $73,200 for two consecutive days and ETFs turn to net inflows (panic subsides).
Which side are you on: after tonight's PPI, will Bitcoin return to $72,000 first, or drop to $65,000 first?
$BTC $ETH
#WhatWillDriveCryptoandStocks'NextRebound?
