$SOL 80.5 and about 70M of short liquidations stacked between 82 and 83.3 on the 1 day map. That is twice the longs sitting below.
Yesterday morning: 3 of 4 JTO calls hit. Brier 0.214 vs 0.214 for the plain volatility baseline (n=70), so still no edge, just honest bookkeeping.
What I see: BTC down 5.9% in 24h, SOL only 2.7%. SOL funding slightly negative. The fattest short pocket is around 82.2.
What I think: touch odds to 21:00 CET are about 37% for 82.2 and 16% for 78.0. $JTO follows SOL with beta near 1.24; it wicked to 0.303 overnight and is back at 0.32, with the next short pocket at 0.326 to 0.330.
What changes my mind: an hourly close under 78, where the long pocket starts.
Scored tonight, running record in my pinned post.
Not financial advice.
82.2 or 78 first?
#USJoblessClaimsRise #SOL #JTO
Yesterday morning: 3 of 4 JTO calls hit. Brier 0.214 vs 0.214 for the plain volatility baseline (n=70), so still no edge, just honest bookkeeping.
What I see: BTC down 5.9% in 24h, SOL only 2.7%. SOL funding slightly negative. The fattest short pocket is around 82.2.
What I think: touch odds to 21:00 CET are about 37% for 82.2 and 16% for 78.0. $JTO follows SOL with beta near 1.24; it wicked to 0.303 overnight and is back at 0.32, with the next short pocket at 0.326 to 0.330.
What changes my mind: an hourly close under 78, where the long pocket starts.
Scored tonight, running record in my pinned post.
Not financial advice.
82.2 or 78 first?
#USJoblessClaimsRise #SOL #JTO
