U.S. October PPI is due out tonight at 9:30 p.m., and it could be the decisive blow that determines whether Bitcoin can stop the bleeding this week.
First, some background: October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, above expectations of 0.3%. Core CPI also came in at 0.3%. The market is now pricing in roughly a 90% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in December, while the odds of a 50-basis-point hike have jumped from 1% to 15%. PPI is expected to come in at 6.6% year over year tonight, up from 6.3% last month. If price pressures at the producer level also exceed expectations, the case for another rate hike will only get stronger.
Bitcoin has already fallen below $70,000 today, hitting a low of $67,568. ETFs have seen $1.44 billion in outflows over the past five days, and institutional money is still heading for the exits. My take: if PPI is moderate tonight, the market may get some breathing room, but don’t expect an immediate reversal. If it comes in hotter than expected, Bitcoin could test even lower levels below $70,000. Right now, inflation matters more than any on-chain data.
As someone who has bills to pay every month, I’m sticking to one rule tonight: don’t make a move before the data comes out. Wait for the dust to settle, then reassess. No point getting woken up by volatility in the middle of the night and being too tired to work tomorrow.
Will you be watching the data at 9:30 tonight, or shutting everything down and waiting until tomorrow to see the results?
$BTC $ETH
This is not investment advice. Make your own judgment.
First, some background: October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, above expectations of 0.3%. Core CPI also came in at 0.3%. The market is now pricing in roughly a 90% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in December, while the odds of a 50-basis-point hike have jumped from 1% to 15%. PPI is expected to come in at 6.6% year over year tonight, up from 6.3% last month. If price pressures at the producer level also exceed expectations, the case for another rate hike will only get stronger.
Bitcoin has already fallen below $70,000 today, hitting a low of $67,568. ETFs have seen $1.44 billion in outflows over the past five days, and institutional money is still heading for the exits. My take: if PPI is moderate tonight, the market may get some breathing room, but don’t expect an immediate reversal. If it comes in hotter than expected, Bitcoin could test even lower levels below $70,000. Right now, inflation matters more than any on-chain data.
As someone who has bills to pay every month, I’m sticking to one rule tonight: don’t make a move before the data comes out. Wait for the dust to settle, then reassess. No point getting woken up by volatility in the middle of the night and being too tired to work tomorrow.
Will you be watching the data at 9:30 tonight, or shutting everything down and waiting until tomorrow to see the results?
$BTC $ETH
This is not investment advice. Make your own judgment.