U.S. withdraws proposal to lower the threshold in its old travel rule｜XMR still pressured by delisting clock｜Watch $500 support first
My stance is to hold off on buying the dip and not misread the regulatory filing as a “full easing of restrictions on privacy coins.” The U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and the Federal Reserve have withdrawn a joint proposal from 2020. The proposal would have lowered the threshold for collecting and transmitting information on cross-border transfers from $3,000 to $250, explicitly covering assets such as convertible virtual currencies. The withdrawal notice published on November 9 says the agencies will not proceed directly to a final rule under that proposal; if they propose similar changes in the future, the public will have another opportunity to comment. What was withdrawn was a draft that had not yet taken effect. Existing recordkeeping and travel rule obligations remain in place. This is absolutely not U.S. regulatory approval for anonymous coins, nor does it mean exchanges must relist XMR.
The impact on the crypto market is through expectations for compliance costs: had the $250 threshold taken effect, regulated institutions might have had to record more information when processing small cross-border transfers. Now that the proposal has been withdrawn, the timeline for those additional short-term burdens has been removed. But for XMR, the more direct reality remains the availability of trading venues. An official MEXC notice schedules the suspension of XMR spot trading and cancellation of open orders for November 13 at 09:00 UTC. Deposits have already been disabled, while withdrawals are expected to remain available for 30 days after delisting. There is no confirmed causal link between the withdrawal of the old U.S. proposal and MEXC’s delisting. Connecting the two into a story that “regulators have allowed it, so exchanges should relist it” would be unsound.
I just checked XMR/USD on Kraken: around $515, with a 24-hour high of about $563 and a low that touched $500. It has weakened considerably from the opening price of $551.5. The $500 level is a round number and a reference point for today’s low; $520 is the first price level it needs to reclaim, and $540 is the next confirmation zone. The current reaction shows that the regulatory filing has not halted short-term selling pressure. If the price breaks below $500 and a rebound fails to reclaim that level, my short-term stabilization thesis is invalidated. If it gets back above $520 and holds, only then will I consider whether selling pressure has eased. If MEXC changes its delisting or withdrawal schedule at short notice, I’ll revise my liquidity assessment based on the new notice rather than force a price prediction using the old timeline.
If I were trading this myself, I would sit this one out for now. The only direction I would consider is a spot long, with a planned position no larger than 1.5% of total capital and no leverage. The entry trigger is a 30-minute close above $520, followed by a retest that holds above $520, while the Kraken price does not quickly fall back toward $500. The first target is $540; I would take half off there and let the rest run toward $560. The stop is below $499; if hit, I would close the position immediately. If the price has not reached $540 within two hours of entry, I would reduce the position. If it closes below $520 again, I would exit completely. If abnormal price spreads or withdrawal risks emerge during MEXC’s actual suspension period, I would cancel the trade even if the price trigger is met. If no trade is executed, I’ll simply record it as an observation and won’t present a plan as a gain.
Sources: FinCEN notice, U.S. Federal Register withdrawal notice, MEXC delisting notice, Kraken spot price. #XMR
The above is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
My stance is to hold off on buying the dip and not misread the regulatory filing as a “full easing of restrictions on privacy coins.” The U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and the Federal Reserve have withdrawn a joint proposal from 2020. The proposal would have lowered the threshold for collecting and transmitting information on cross-border transfers from $3,000 to $250, explicitly covering assets such as convertible virtual currencies. The withdrawal notice published on November 9 says the agencies will not proceed directly to a final rule under that proposal; if they propose similar changes in the future, the public will have another opportunity to comment. What was withdrawn was a draft that had not yet taken effect. Existing recordkeeping and travel rule obligations remain in place. This is absolutely not U.S. regulatory approval for anonymous coins, nor does it mean exchanges must relist XMR.
The impact on the crypto market is through expectations for compliance costs: had the $250 threshold taken effect, regulated institutions might have had to record more information when processing small cross-border transfers. Now that the proposal has been withdrawn, the timeline for those additional short-term burdens has been removed. But for XMR, the more direct reality remains the availability of trading venues. An official MEXC notice schedules the suspension of XMR spot trading and cancellation of open orders for November 13 at 09:00 UTC. Deposits have already been disabled, while withdrawals are expected to remain available for 30 days after delisting. There is no confirmed causal link between the withdrawal of the old U.S. proposal and MEXC’s delisting. Connecting the two into a story that “regulators have allowed it, so exchanges should relist it” would be unsound.
I just checked XMR/USD on Kraken: around $515, with a 24-hour high of about $563 and a low that touched $500. It has weakened considerably from the opening price of $551.5. The $500 level is a round number and a reference point for today’s low; $520 is the first price level it needs to reclaim, and $540 is the next confirmation zone. The current reaction shows that the regulatory filing has not halted short-term selling pressure. If the price breaks below $500 and a rebound fails to reclaim that level, my short-term stabilization thesis is invalidated. If it gets back above $520 and holds, only then will I consider whether selling pressure has eased. If MEXC changes its delisting or withdrawal schedule at short notice, I’ll revise my liquidity assessment based on the new notice rather than force a price prediction using the old timeline.
If I were trading this myself, I would sit this one out for now. The only direction I would consider is a spot long, with a planned position no larger than 1.5% of total capital and no leverage. The entry trigger is a 30-minute close above $520, followed by a retest that holds above $520, while the Kraken price does not quickly fall back toward $500. The first target is $540; I would take half off there and let the rest run toward $560. The stop is below $499; if hit, I would close the position immediately. If the price has not reached $540 within two hours of entry, I would reduce the position. If it closes below $520 again, I would exit completely. If abnormal price spreads or withdrawal risks emerge during MEXC’s actual suspension period, I would cancel the trade even if the price trigger is met. If no trade is executed, I’ll simply record it as an observation and won’t present a plan as a gain.
Sources: FinCEN notice, U.S. Federal Register withdrawal notice, MEXC delisting notice, Kraken spot price. #XMR
The above is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
