$BTC 68,683, hit a 24-hour low of 68,388.
In this morning’s post, I said 70,000 had been broken. By noon, it had plunged another thousand-plus.
ETH at 1,926. After breaking 2,000, it never stopped falling; its 24-hour low was 1,921.
This morning’s post only accounted for half the damage from this drop.
According to Coinglass, liquidations across the crypto market over the past 24 hours have topped $1.2 billion, up from $680 million this morning. 150,000 people were wiped out.
BTC alone saw $677 million in liquidations, 96% of them long positions.
But liquidations are the result, not the cause.
Data from Farside: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw nearly $1.44 billion in cumulative net outflows over five trading days, from November 5 to 11.
On the 11th alone, $300 million flowed out, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $270 million of that.
Institutions are leaving; it’s not retail investors running.
The on-chain picture is even uglier.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score was still at 90 on October 13. Now it’s at 0.
Over 30 days, apparent Bitcoin demand has shrunk by 284,000 BTC.
Stablecoin supply has fallen by $14.2 billion over 30 days, the fastest pace since June 2022.
Money is flowing out and demand is falling. This is not a correction of the same magnitude.
The Dollar Index has also hit a 19-month high, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December has shot up to 85.5%.
Macro conditions, capital flows, and sentiment are all pushing down at once.
At this level, I’m neither buying the dip nor chasing shorts.
Buying the dip means betting against $1.4 billion in outflows; chasing shorts means running after the tail end of $1.2 billion in liquidations. Neither has good odds.
BTC’s next level down is 65,000. It won’t have stopped bleeding until it reclaims 71,000; the first rebound target is 73,200.
ETH is at 1,926, with 1,900 as the next key level.
One quick note on ZEC: it hit a low of 886, passing through the entire 895–933 long-entry zone. It’s now at 901, and the 872 stop-loss hasn’t been hit. My view is unchanged.
Tonight’s 21:30 PPI release remains the biggest variable.
I’m not making any moves before the data comes out.
Personal analysis, not investment advice.
#BTC
In this morning’s post, I said 70,000 had been broken. By noon, it had plunged another thousand-plus.
ETH at 1,926. After breaking 2,000, it never stopped falling; its 24-hour low was 1,921.
This morning’s post only accounted for half the damage from this drop.
According to Coinglass, liquidations across the crypto market over the past 24 hours have topped $1.2 billion, up from $680 million this morning. 150,000 people were wiped out.
BTC alone saw $677 million in liquidations, 96% of them long positions.
But liquidations are the result, not the cause.
Data from Farside: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw nearly $1.44 billion in cumulative net outflows over five trading days, from November 5 to 11.
On the 11th alone, $300 million flowed out, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $270 million of that.
Institutions are leaving; it’s not retail investors running.
The on-chain picture is even uglier.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score was still at 90 on October 13. Now it’s at 0.
Over 30 days, apparent Bitcoin demand has shrunk by 284,000 BTC.
Stablecoin supply has fallen by $14.2 billion over 30 days, the fastest pace since June 2022.
Money is flowing out and demand is falling. This is not a correction of the same magnitude.
The Dollar Index has also hit a 19-month high, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December has shot up to 85.5%.
Macro conditions, capital flows, and sentiment are all pushing down at once.
At this level, I’m neither buying the dip nor chasing shorts.
Buying the dip means betting against $1.4 billion in outflows; chasing shorts means running after the tail end of $1.2 billion in liquidations. Neither has good odds.
BTC’s next level down is 65,000. It won’t have stopped bleeding until it reclaims 71,000; the first rebound target is 73,200.
ETH is at 1,926, with 1,900 as the next key level.
One quick note on ZEC: it hit a low of 886, passing through the entire 895–933 long-entry zone. It’s now at 901, and the 872 stop-loss hasn’t been hit. My view is unchanged.
Tonight’s 21:30 PPI release remains the biggest variable.
I’m not making any moves before the data comes out.
Personal analysis, not investment advice.
#BTC
